Israelis believe that the war against Iran is still far from over

In the Mahane Yehuda market, Jerusalem smells of coffee and freshly baked bread. Vendors call out offers behind piles of shiny fruit, some tourists stop to take photos in front of the sweet stalls, and young people dodge the crowds with headphones on. At first glance, nothing seems very different. But the city has long learned to seem normal even when it is not.The war against Iran, which began in February and was followed by a ceasefire as fragile as it was unpredictable, has left a lasting mark. Since the start of the truce on April 8, the country has experienced days of relative calm, but also the threat of renewed attacks, which materialized this weekend with the return of Iranian bombs on Israeli territory. For now, relative calm has returned, but no one knows what to think anymore. Israel is not in an open war with Iran, but neither is it at peace. On the street, this translates into one word: weariness.“I was among those who considered victory a foregone conclusion from the first day,” says Eitan, as he tries to sell some souvenirs to the few tourists who are timidly returning to Jerusalem. “At first, we all said this would end quickly, that Israel would show its strength. Now we only talk about how much longer this will all last.” The conflict, he says, “no longer surprises anyone.”The change in mood is also visible in the data. The latest polls show a society that continues to support confrontation with Iran, but is increasingly less convinced of the outcome of the war. According to the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), one of Israel's leading research centers on security and strategy, only 41% of Israelis today believe that Israel has won or will eventually win, while nearly half believe the country is trapped in a stalemate with no clear end.In March, during the full Roaring Lion military operation, Jewish support for the war exceeded 90%, while among the Israeli Arab population it hovered around 25%. Furthermore, three-quarters of Israeli Jews stated they trusted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to lead the offensive. Three months later, confidence in the government has eroded. Now, according to the INSS, only between 25% and 30% of Israelis fully trust the government.In a cafe on a side street off the market, Ayala stirs his coffee without completely taking his eyes off a screen displaying new reports about the attacks in the north of the country. “It’s not peace,” he says. “It’s just a pause between things that haven’t ended yet.”The sentence summarizes the general feeling quite well. While the front with Iran remains frozen, tension with Hezbollah in Lebanon has intensified again. In this context, almost six out of ten Israelis continue to be in favor of further hardening the fighting in the north, and a majority support establishing a permanent security zone within Lebanese territory. “Israel must continue to change the region,” says his partner, Yosef. “This is an existential war and Israel’s enemies are taking the hardest blows in decades, even if many here don’t want to see it.” There is an idea that has never stopped being present among broad sectors of Israeli society: Iran and its allies represent a direct threat to the country's survival. This is one of the main reasons why support for the war remains relatively stable, even after weeks of missiles, air-raid shelters, and constant mobilizations."Trump is the one who really rules"

But precisely because fear remains so present, many Israelis expected the results against Iran to be more decisive. And this has ended up fueling criticism of the Israeli prime minister, both from the opposition and from some sectors of the nationalist right. Military analysts and veteran commentators also openly question the objectives achieved and, above all, the growing dependence on Washington.The perception that Israel has been conditioned by the United States appears again and again in conversations. “Who really is in charge here is Trump,” says one of the few shopkeepers in East Jerusalem, the Arab-majority part of the city, who have opened during the festival of Eid al-Adha Mubarak – one of the great festivals of the Muslim calendar, in which families gather and the sacrifice of Abraham is remembered –.According to the Israel Democracy Institute, one of the main centers for public opinion analysis in Israel, 51% of Israelis believe that the Trump administration today has more influence over the country's defense decisions than the Israeli government. It is curious, however, that from Washington the population begins to think differently: they feel that Netanyahu has exposed Trump, especially this weekend.Three months later, the underlying feeling is that the decisive offensive against Iran, whose main objectives were the destruction of the Iranian nuclear and ballistic program and the fall of the ayatollah regime, has yielded partial results, for the moment. Israel has struck Iranian military infrastructure and weakened part of the so-called "axis of resistance" led by Tehran, but neither the regime has fallen nor has the sense of threat disappeared.