Trump bets on pragmatism in the Iranian nuclear dossier

BarcelonaPresident Donald Trump's unpredictable, if not erratic, nature has been reflected in many issues since his reelection. Perhaps one of his most surprising shifts has been in his policy toward Iran's nuclear program. While many analysts feared that a second presidency would lead to an increase in tensions between Washington and Tehran that could lead to a new war, the ineffable American leader has opted for pragmatism and the search for an agreement. In fact, five rounds of negotiations have already been held between representatives of both countries in recent months, and it was announced that last Saturday the Trump administration made a formal proposal to the Iranian government.

The dispute between Washington and Tehran over their nuclear program is long and winding. The United States, under President Barack Obama, signed an agreement in 2015 that introduced limits on Iran's nuclear program to ensure it was used exclusively for civilian purposes. Although its leaders have always insisted that they do not intend to acquire nuclear weapons, both Washington and much of the international community remain wary. In 2018, Trump tore up that agreement, which other world powers, including Russia, had also signed, and reintroduced a strict sanctions regime that has strangled the Iranian economy.

Until now, the Sultanate of Oman had played the role of mediator, a task in which it seemed to enjoy a clear monopoly. But in recent days, an unexpected competitor has emerged. Trump explained that in his last telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, last Wednesday, the latter offered himself as a possible mediator in the dispute with Iran.

"I let President Putin know that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and on that, I believe we are in agreement," Trump commented in a message posted on social media in which he also addressed the prospects for peace in the war in Ukraine. "President Putin has suggested to me that he would participate in the discussions with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in bringing them to a conclusion," he added, leaving the door open to Russian involvement in the negotiations. Behind the suggestion is the fact that Putin and Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, now maintain a close relationship, given that Iran has become a major supplier of weapons for the war the Kremlin is delivering to Ukraine.

The diplomatic path

According to leaks to the American press, the Iranian dossier sparked a lively debate within the Trump administration. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who maintains that the best way to ensure the regime cannot obtain atomic weapons is to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities, attempted to influence the issue. But his efforts were in vain, and the American president preferred to explore diplomatic channels, as a bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities could lead to a regional conflict that would drag the country into a new war in the Middle East, a scenario he wants to avoid at all costs.

Despite the fact that Iran is greatly weakened after Israel destroyed a large part of its anti-aircraft defenses a few months ago and cut short the leadership of its most powerful pawn in the region, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, the White House believes it still has sufficient conventional weapons and powerful militias to set the region ablaze. This reasoning, by the way, is the same one used by the Persian Gulf petromonarchies, which have shown great influence over the US leader during Trump's recent trip to the region.

Thus, the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program are back to square one, more or less where they were more than a decade ago. The 2015 agreement established a limit on the amount of uranium Iran could enrich, as well as a strict regime of inspections by the international community to ensure that this material was not diverted to a secret military program. In his public statements, Trump has stated that his goal in the talks is to prevent the ayatollahs' regime from enriching any amount of uranium, a possibility that Tehran categorically rejects. Following Trump's rupture of the 2015 agreement, Iran accelerated its enrichment capacity and now has more developed capabilities, very close to those needed to manufacture nuclear weapons.

According to a newspaper report The New York TimesThe US has reportedly sent the Iranian government a proposal based on the creation of an international consortium for uranium enrichment, in which both countries would participate, as well as others in the region such as Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. The proposal is quite generic and leaves many loose ends. According to the newspaper, during the construction of the facilities owned by the consortium, Iran could continue enriching uranium, but on a limited basis. However, once operational, it would not be able to carry out this activity independently. For the moment, the Iranian government does not appear to have welcomed the proposal.