Iran opens a new front and threatens Trump with retaliation if he attacks the country
The United States is temporarily reducing personnel at the Qatar air base, which was attacked last June.
BeirutThe Iranian crisis The situation has spilled over from the domestic sphere and is now impacting the Gulf's military map. Tehran warned several countries in the region on Wednesday, including Qatar, that US bases on their territory will be attacked if Washington launches an operation against Iran. The message, transmitted through diplomatic channels and confirmed by regional sources to Reuters, explicitly mentions facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Qatar. Doha, the capital, is home to Al Udeid, the largest US air base in the Middle East and the operational center of US Central Command. The facility houses approximately 10,000 personnel and is a key component of the White House's military projection in the region. The Iranian warning is not abstract. Security advisor Ali Shamkhani publicly recalled the limited—and previously announced—attack that Tehran launched In June of last year, an attack was launched against Al Udeid in retaliation for the US bombing of Iranian facilities during the Twelve-Day War with Israel. The incident, which caused no casualties and was intercepted by Qatari defenses, remains an operational precedent. In this new context, diplomatic sources have indicated that some US personnel at the base have been advised to leave temporarily, a precautionary adjustment rather than a full evacuation. The British also withdrew some of their personnel.
These threats come as President Donald Trump has escalated his rhetoric toward Tehran, canceled diplomatic contacts, and He warned of possible retaliation if the repression continues. and the executions of protesters. Iran seeks to shift the cost of a potential intervention onto US regional allies, forcing them to pressure Trump to hold back. Doha, which in recent years has acted as a mediating channel between Washington and Tehran, has warned that a military escalation would have direct consequences for the entire Gulf region.
This external backdrop accompanies an internal situation marked by sustained protests and continued repression. According to the NGO Iran Human Rights According to the Norwegian-based International Human Rights Watch (IHR), Iranian security forces have killed at least 3,428 protesters and arrested more than 10,000 people. Organizations such as the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA)The US-based organization counts fewer deaths, at least 2,571, but more than 18,100 arrests, based on name records, hospital reports, and family witnesses. The same regime has admitted to more than 2,000 deaths.
The fate of Erfan Soltani
Since January 8, the country has been under a near-total internet blackout. Social media, messaging, and data services remain blocked, while state channels and some controlled internal platforms remain operational. Small windows of satellite connection, mainly through Starlink, allow the sporadic dissemination of videos and information, albeit with unstable signals and the risk of equipment seizure. France and other European governments have offered technical support to restore connectivity. However, so far the impact has been negligible.
The judicial system continues to process cases against detainees. The most visible case is that of Erfan Soltani, a 26-year-old man sentenced to death on the charge of "enmity against God" after a summary trial. His execution has been announced for this Wednesday, but so far there has been no independent confirmation. In any case, the system uses opacity as yet another tool of its own intimidation mechanism.
The protests maintain a scattered but persistent pattern. The police have sent messages to families warning of legal consequences for young people's participation in demonstrations, a practice intended to shift the cost of repression to the domestic sphere. Security forces retain operational capacity but are forced to maintain continuous deployments in multiple locations across the country.
The result is a scenario in which internal repression, information isolation, and regional tension advance in parallel: a crisis that is no longer unfolding solely in Iran but is projected onto the strategic chessboard of the entire Middle East.
