Future alternatives: what would be good for London clashes with Brussels

LondonA few days ago, German researcher Jannike Wachowiak, from the think tankUK in a Changing Europe, stated in a briefing with a group of foreign correspondents in London that "the relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU remains unresolved". Ten years have passed since the referendum, six since the UK's exit from the EU became effective, and Ortega's conllevancia can also define the dynamic between the islands and Brussels. Geography, inevitably, conditions.

Between 2016 and 2020, Brexit monopolized one European summit after another. Today, however, relations with London have fallen off Brussels' priorities, displaced by the war in Ukraine, rivalry with the United States and China, and the battle for global competitiveness. In Westminster, on the other hand, the debate about what the links with the EU should be periodically resurfaces, especially driven by the Labour party.

Former Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, has recently reactivated it within the framework of his campaign to lead the party — and of the blow against Keir Starmer, which may be imminent following Andy Burnham's incontestable victory in the Makerfield by-election last Thursday— stating that he hoped "the UK would return to the EU someday".

Demonstrations like this one, statements like those of researcher Jannike Wachowiak or Prime Minister Starmer's desire to reset ties with Brussels indicate that the United Kingdom continues to be stuck in 2016: some want to rebuild bridges with the EU; others, to finish blowing them up. Meanwhile, the European Union has moved on.

The writer Zadie Smith, author of the celebrated novel White Teeth (2001), captured this feeling in an essay published in The New York Review two months after the referendum: Fences: A Brexit Diary. In that text, Smith observed a new fence around a school in her north London neighborhood and turned it into a metaphor for the country. The United Kingdom is closing itself off to protect itself, but in doing so, it becomes smaller, more vulnerable. The fence solves nothing; it only separates. And Brexit, like that fence, has not closed any debate either: it has perpetuated it. At its core, Brexit is a state of mind that, paraphrasing the novelist, turned a deep disagreement into permanent political architecture.

EU red lines

From the very first moment, the EU set clear red lines: no negotiations before the activation of Article 50the mobility and work program for young people up to thirty years will be one of the main battles. If it is signed, the the mobility and work program for young people up to thirty years old will be one of the key battlegrounds. If it is signed, the Brexiters will be outraged and accuse Starmer of having "betrayed Brexit".

The divorce has also reinforced a fundamental conviction: a third country cannot enjoy the same advantages as a member state. This logic, already present in the deal with EFTA (European Free Trade Association: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland), has been consolidated in a context marked by the rise of Eurosceptic parties. For the EU, making overly generous concessions to the United Kingdom would be an incentive for other governments to play with the idea of leaving. "Any British proposal that sounds like 'better than being inside' is doomed to hit a political wall in Brussels, Paris, or other capitals," recalled Jannike Wachowiak.

The asymmetry of interests conditions any British attempt at rapprochement and to reset. The Common Understanding agreed last year —which includes agreements on sanitary and phytosanitary standards, emissions trading, electricity, or youth mobility, although details are yet to be finalized— could bring modest economic benefits, between 0.1% and 0.5% of GDP in the long term. These gains come with a central condition: dynamic alignment with European legislation. In practice, this means that the United Kingdom would have to adopt all the Community rules necessary for the functioning of the agreements and progressively incorporate new directives and regulations. In return, it would only obtain a limited right of consultation, without a vote, similar to the Swiss model.

institutional reforms to manage a larger UnionThe far-right harass everywhere

National, Alternative for Germany or Vox can have a lot of weight.

To all this is added British domestic policy. Both Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, and Nigel Farage, head of the Reform Party, have promised to reverse the Common Understanding signed by Starmer last year and to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). A move that could involve the total suspension of the TCA –the original treaty signed by Boris Johnson– and plunge relations between the bloc and the islands into a "no deal" scenario, which was so discussed during the 2016-2020 period. This would lead to an additional GDP drop of 3%.

And while the UK remains within the fence that Zadie Smith wrote about, the EU is moving towards new enlargements and considering institutional reforms to manage a larger and more dynamic Union. Ideas such as a European Security Council could open up spaces for the UK to influence strategic debates without returning to the formal decision-making table. The paradox is that, while in the UK rapprochement with Europe is seen as a progressive project, the EU of the imminent future could be shaped by far-right governments: in France, Germany, and Spain, among others, forces such as Rassemblement National, Alternative for Germany, or Vox may have a significant weight.