Europe will decide the success of Sánchez's 'all in' with Trump

Due to both context and necessity, international policy has become a priority for Pedro Sánchez's government. La Moncloa, which has a very large team of foreign policy advisors, cannot hide the fact that, for months now, it has been pursuing a clear objective: to establish Sánchez as the leading progressive figure in EuropeThe aim is not only European, but also to have an impact beyond the borders of the European Union, especially in Latin America, a region neighbor And a future that could soon improve Sánchez's strategic standing in Brussels.

Politics is often paradoxical, and Donald Trump has become Sánchez's best ally in advancing his global strategy: the Spanish president knows that confrontation with Trumpism benefits him, and that's why he habitually seeks it out. It's simple electoral arithmetic: an external enemy fosters cohesion and helps to dilute internal problems and controversies. The PP-Vox coalition's sympathies with Trumpism also factor into the calculation. Those in Sánchez's presidential cabinet are probably looking to the Mark Carney miracle as a model. The current Prime Minister of Canada won the 2025 elections After a remarkable comeback thanks to a campaign focused on standing up to Trump's imperialist threats. Madrid isn't Ottawa, but the polls insist that Trump is persona non grata for the vast majority of Europeans.

The Spanish government insists on establishing its own profile, and in recent months—with varying degrees of success—it has often distanced itself from the European consensus and stood out on the global stage. In the case of Gaza, it has been the most combative government in the European Union against Israel. Madrid has also departed from the EU's logic when it comes to its relationship with Beijing and its stance on the migration agenda; to condemn the attack and capture of Venezuelaor to pronounce on the tech bros Friends of the White House. "Let the techno-oligarchs bark, Sancho, it's a sign we're riding," tweeted Sánchez, evoking Don Quixote, after being insulted by Elon Musk. In Washington's eyes, of all the grievances on the list, the one that had probably caused the most annoyance so far was Sánchez's refusal to commit to allocating 5% of GDP to defense, as Trump demands of NATO partners. The Socialist's stance, which also responds to internal logic, has distanced him from the small club of EU leaders trying to negotiate the European voice on the war in Ukraine.

But the riskiest move we saw this week. Sánchez reacted again with much more force than the rest of the partners to the American and Israeli bombs on TehranWhile Germany, France, and the United Kingdom aligned themselves completely with Washington and bared their teeth at Iran, the socialist government denounced the actions of the United States and Israel—despite targeting "a terrible regime," in Sánchez's words—as violating international law and plunging the Middle East, and consequently the world, into an even more dangerous situation. Up to this point, the script was predictable. What the White House didn't expect was that Madrid would deny US forces the use of the military bases of Rota and Morón de la Frontera. All in From Moncloa against the most powerful country in the world.

Sources within Sánchez's presidential cabinet emphasize that his foreign policy attempts to be based on consistency. The action regarding the military bases is certainly consistent with the Spanish president's discourse, but the impact and the political cost it may entail are now an unknown. From the room where Volodymyr Zelensky was humiliatedOn Tuesday, Trump declared diplomatic war on Madrid: live on air, he said he would cut off all trade with Spain and that Sánchez was a "terrible partner." Trumpian fire and fury. Trump explodes when those around him abandon the strategy of subservience, so popular in Europe and mastered to perfection by Mark Rutte. Experts predict that the United States' threat to cut ties with Spain is virtually impossible to carry out. lanternAnd that the trade relationship—more beneficial to Washington, by the way—depends on agreements signed with the European Union. In Brussels, they downplayed Trump's outburst and simply reiterated that they would ensure the full protection of the European Union's interests. At Moncloa Palace, they are standing firm, are quite optimistic, and rely on European protection against whatever may come.

And the political key to Sánchez's move lies here and transcends Spanish borders: Europe will decide whether the all in The socialist government's alliance with Trump is working. The serious, unprecedented diplomatic incident between Washington and Madrid It is a new opportunity to invoke European unity in the face of a leader – who can no longer be called a partner or an ally – who constantly despises the EU and its meanings. German Chancellor Merz, standing alongside Trump on Tuesday as the Republican attacked Spain, missed a golden opportunity, and his silence will go down in history as one of the EU's most shameful blunders. He later backtracked, but too late. Sánchez's hope rests on the actions of other European partners, who in recent hours have moved in the direction Madrid has set: France, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Norway have expressed doubts about US actions in the Middle East. If this support solidifies, Sánchez's gamble will have been a prestigious political victory. But what if it goes wrong? Sources at the Ministry of Defense prefer not to dwell on it: "I assure you, it's a very bad deal to have the United States turning its back on you."

The US bombs—at Netanyahu's express request, it's worth remembering—are yet another message to European governments: Trump's United States, more unpredictable and accustomed to the use of force, has turned geopolitics and international relations into the law of the jungle. In Brussels, they are too dependent on Washington's protection and conditioned by the future of Ukraine –an existential war–It seems that the conclusion has been reached that, after a year of humiliations, the strategy of subservience to the White House is not working. The problem is that the alternative is not yet fully developed and is causing alarm in many European foreign ministries. The extent of Trump's response against Sánchez, which has yet to materialize, will provide clues as to the viability of this alternative.