Europe loses its fear of Trump
Donald Trump is losing control of the war in Ukraine every other day. Vladimir Putin isn't paying him the attention he'd like, and He had to cancel the ultimatum he had given to Zelensky to accept his peace plan. And while Europe has breathed a sigh of relief, although it still struggles. My articles "Europe is preparing to resist" and "Europe has yet to open its eyesPublished in May and October, respectively, these articles attempted to address European impotence. Flight and mourning. Europe as its own worst enemy. Until now, yes, it seems to be losing its fear and discovering the opportunity for self-reflection, recognizing that deterrence is not incompatible with firmness. It is reluctantly accepting that the Kremlin will eventually take a piece of Ukrainian sovereignty. Russia—which should be finished by autumn 2026—and also... the creation of the so-called military Schengen areawhich allows units from all Western armies to move freely within the European bloc. However, some issues of considerable strategic importance remain unresolved.
More than 190 billion euros in Russian assets – which could be used for the reconstruction of Ukraine – They remain frozen in EU banks because no one is giving the order to confiscate them.Russian threats affect Belgium most of all, because the majority of its assets are held in Brussels banks. The money isn't moving, despite pressure from the European Commission.
A NATO without the United States
Even more millions. How will the European Council's March 2025 resolution allocating €800 billion to European defense be implemented? What phased approach is planned? There's no mention of it. Nor is it clarified whether there's any connection between this massive sum and what Trump is demanding from NATO members.5% of GDP in each one–. At this point, it is necessary to recall the information disseminated by the Financial Times in the spring of 2025, according to which the EU plans to discontinue the United States' presence in NATO.
The impetus for this idea – which would be implemented in five to ten years, a long period – would come from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Scandinavian countries. The core of the Coalition of Volunteers, which brings together the thirty or so countries that would form part of the interposition units to defend UkraineIn this hypothetical scenario, Trump is superfluous, because Europe is increasingly clear that it must prevent Washington from pushing a weakened Ukraine into accepting the maximum number of Russian demands. All this while sectors of NATO are proposing—with varying degrees of force, it's unclear—preemptive action against Russia in response to its hybrid attacks.
And meanwhile, we don't lose sight of what Putin is doing and what he might do. He's unlikely to take over all of Ukraine, which is what he would like. There will be no victory, and he will have to settle for something resembling a triumph. But Putin will never admit failure: one day he says he can give Europe written guarantees that it won't be attacked, and the next day he threatens it with war. For now. The Russian dictator continues to buy timefreezing trenches, launching drones, and killing people every day. It doesn't seem that Putin wants to abandon the more tactical segment of his confusing yet calculated strategy.