NATO will evaluate Spain's arms plans next year.

BrusselsNATO allies agreed at this year's annual summit to an unprecedented, phased increase in military spending until they allocate 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to military expenditures. the percentage that Donald Trump demandedOnly Spain opposed it from the beginning and, in fact, is the only one that has refused to reach that percentage. Despite spending much less money than the other allies, Pedro Sánchez's government committed to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that it would meet the military capability targets that allies must assume—calculations that the Atlantic Alliance has never believed and which it now intends to evaluate during the NATO meeting. The same sources explain that Spanish and NATO authorities are expected to share information on Spain's rearmament plans in early 2026, and then both NATO and the other allies will present an assessment of whether the Moncloa Palace is complying with the commitments made last June. Although these documents are likely to be leaked to the press, especially given that some allies are angry with Spain for being the only country refusing to commit to 5% military spending, they are theoretically confidential and not public. Like Spain, all other allies will have to undergo this review process.

It's worth remembering that at the Hague summit, the allies committed to military capabilities that require all member states to allocate 3.5% of their GDP to traditional weaponry—soldiers, tanks, or missiles, for example—and 1.5% to other, more general security measures, including cybersecurity. Spain is the only NATO partner that claims it can achieve the same defense objectives by allocating only 2.1%. This is why NATO and the other allies are so skeptical that the Spanish government will ultimately comply.

Be that as it may, the Spanish government maintains that it will achieve its goal and insists that the most important thing is not the percentages, but the military capabilities attained and the commitment to NATO. In this regard, it also argues that the forecasts for a healthy growth rate in the Spanish economy will mean that 2.1% of the State's GDP will ultimately represent a much larger sum than it currently does, and therefore, the Moncloa Palace will have more leeway to meet the objectives. However, a review of the allies' rearmament plans is expected in 2029, and the Atlantic Alliance, taking into account Spain's economic growth, may also demand greater ambition in the defense capabilities it must contribute to the military agreement.

Doubts are growing about France and Italy

The Spanish government has been the ally that has most openly opposed the 5% demanded by Trump, which even threatened Spain with trade reprisalsHowever, it is not the only Atlantic partner that has shown reluctance, and diplomatic sources indicate a growing fear that the economic and political situation in some countries, such as France and Italy, will make it difficult for them to increase military spending to the levels agreed upon at the Hague summit. It is worth remembering that, according to the European Commission's economic forecasts, France will end 2025 with a debt of 116% and a deficit of 5.5%, two and a half percentage points above the EU's fiscal rules (35%). And in Italy, although it will maintain its deficit at 3% this year, its debt has skyrocketed to 136%. Furthermore, neither country seems very willing to make significant cuts in other sectors to rearm to the levels imposed by Trump.