China, Iran's main trading partner, is keeping a low profile in the conflict.
Beijing, which buys 80% of its oil from the Persian country, is committed to dialogue and is avoiding offering military support.
BeijingBeijing's response to the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran has been restrained, appealing to diplomacy to resolve the conflict. This is typical of Chinese foreign policy, even though this time the attacked country is one of its allies and major trading partners. Iran is a key piece in China's international expansion. Sanctions against the ayatollahs' regime have made the Asian giant its main trading partner. Around 80% of Iranian oil shipped to China is destined for the US. The Chinese government obtains high-quality crude at a low price and, moreover, buys it with yuan, without using the US dollar. Aside from Iran's large oil and gas reserves, the country is geostrategically important to China because of its control of the Strait of Hormuz and, therefore, its oil trade. Iran has also become a key player in the Belt and Road Initiative trade corridor and a hub Logistics route for shipping goods to Europe.
Other interests
In 2021, both countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership declaration under which the Chinese government committed to investing $400 billion over 25 years. Infrastructure, energy, banking, and telecommunications are the priority sectors. However, it seems that, so far, Beijing's investments have been modest. Nevertheless, Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE hold the majority of telecommunications infrastructure contracts. And the Iranian government, with Chinese technical assistance, has built a firewall to control internet access. China also invited Iran to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS, currently comprised of eleven countries, including Russia. The alliance with Iran extends beyond trade relations, as Beijing has explored partnerships with other Gulf states and even acted as a diplomatic mediator, facilitating an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
In response to the US and Israeli military operation, China is cautious and defends international norms and diplomatic solutions as opposed to force. For example, it denounces the United States for violating international law and disrespecting the territorial integrity of other countries. However, it has not used the same argument against Russia, despite the invasion of Ukraine.
Diplomatic contacts
China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, spoke with his Iranian counterpart to express his support and acknowledge Iran's right to self-defense, but so far has not offered military assistance. He also spoke by phone with the Israeli Foreign Minister to urge a halt to the attacks and advocate for a solution based on "dialogue and negotiation." He has also contacted the foreign ministers of Russia, Oman, and France, but not the United States. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning lamented at a press conference that China "was not informed in advance" of the military operation. So far, one Chinese citizen has died and some 3,000 have been evacuated. She also demanded an "immediate halt to military operations" and warned of the risk to international trade posed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, he called the information published in some Western media outlets about a possible agreement between China and Iran to sell CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, capable of reaching US aircraft carriers in the region, a lie. In fact, Washington fears that Beijing will supply weapons and military technology to Iran.
As with the intervention in Venezuela, the US military operation in Iran is now sending a clear message to China about its willingness to defend its areas of influence: Latin America and the Middle East are a priority for Washington.
China can cope with the cutoff of Iranian oil supplies, since it has been proactively increasing its reserves in recent years and maintains good relations with Russia. Chinese pragmatism would also allow it to continue doing business in Iran under a new, more pro-Western regime.
For some analysts, the chaos unleashed by Donald Trump in the Middle East could be a long-term opportunity for China. Washington may be less interested in providing military support to Taiwan at a time when it is engaged in an open armed conflict and has fewer troops. There has also been speculation about whether the United States and Israel would have enough weaponry to sustain a conflict for an extended period. In this respect, Beijing holds a position of strength. Its control of rare earth exports, minerals necessary for weapons manufacturing, could give it leverage in negotiations. Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are scheduled to meet in Beijing soon.