Ceuta and a massive abstention mark the legislative elections in Morocco

BarcelonaThis Wednesday, the nearly fifteen million Moroccan citizens registered in the electoral census are called to participate in legislative elections held in an atmosphere strained by the Ceuta crisis and all its ramifications. In a political landscape dominated by monarchist parties, which govern in a coalition executive led by Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch, the election results are not expected to bring any significant political change to the House of Representatives, which consists of 395 members. One of the main questions surrounding the elections is what the abstention rate will be, which analysts predict could be very high given the disillusionment with the political class among a large part of the population.

Although it has not been a central issue in a campaign that has been lackluster, the shadow of the Ceuta crisis has inevitably loomed over the elections. While in Spain both the media and the majority of political parties, with the sole exception of the PSOE, attribute the entry of tens of thousands of migrants into the autonomous city as a method of pressure on Madrid to a plan by Rabat, in Morocco this perception is not as clear.

Not for nothing, the reality projected by the Ceuta crisis comes into direct contradiction with the central message promoted by the Moroccan Government in recent years, which claims that the North African country has already crossed the threshold of modernity typical of Western countries.

For this reason, it aspires to goals such as hosting the 2030 World Cup final on its territory. "At this moment, it is still not clear what happened. One possible theory is that the strategy was designed by some figure in the regime who wants to gain points with the US or Israel to position themselves well at a time of a dying reign. It seems unlikely that the king had any knowledge of it," comments a European observer with good knowledge of the reality in Morocco.

In any case, the images of so many young people risking their lives to leave the country, and the fact that dozens of them lost their lives in the attempt –some estimates rise to 144 fatalities–, has sparked a feeling of unease and confusion within Moroccan society. Several intellectuals and some opposition parties, such as the left-wing Democratic Way or the Islamists of the Justice and Development Party (PJD), have criticized social inequalities in the country. Even the monarch Mohammed VI has acknowledged this reality in some of his speeches, and has referred to the need to fight against the "two-speed Morocco".

A rising figure

In this context and given the lack of explanations for the Ceuta crisis by the premier Akhannouch, the figure of the Minister of Justice, Abdellatif Ouahbi, has emerged with his own discourse claiming the Moroccan nature of Ceuta and Melilla. Ouahbi belongs to the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), a monarchist formation that is both an ally and a competitor of the National Rally of Independents (RNI), led by Akhannouch, which was the winner in the last electoral contest.

Since electoral polls are uncommon in Morocco, analysts base their expectations on their intuition and on the coverage that officialist media dedicate to the various candidates. On this basis, there is a consensus in describing Fouzi Lekjaa as the rising star of the country's politics. This 56-year-old technocrat is currently the Minister of Budget and president of the Moroccan Football Federation, a position that has given him great visibility after the celebration of the Africa Cup in Morocco last winter.

A few months before the elections, Lekjaa, who entered politics as an independent, joined the PAM, which gives the party the status of favorite. However, since the programs and positions of this party and the RNI are practically identical, a hypothetical victory for Lekjaa would mean only a change in the internal balances within the executive, but no change of direction. In fact, in Morocco, everyone knows that important decisions are made by the King or the Makhzen, as the deep state that lives around the Royal Palace is known. For this reason, coming to power has discredited the old opposition parties, as happened to the social-democratic USFP more than two decades ago or, more recently, to the Islamist PJD.

This impossibility of effecting change through the ballot box explains the lack of interest that elections arouse in Morocco and the expectation of massive abstention, especially among young people, who suffer from an unemployment rate of 35% and few prospects for life growth. In the Maghreb country, it is necessary to register to participate in elections, and only half of the adult population usually does so. In 2021, the official turnout was 50%, but if the potential census is taken as a reference, only 25% of Moroccans voted. This time the figure could be even lower.