Brussels proposes a joint "emergency protocol" to respond to hybrid warfare

BrusselsRussia's latest hybrid attacks have made it clear that Europe lacks a clear collective response to threats that do not reach the threshold of armed aggression. Faced with requests from various European capitals to take action (and announcements of some national plans to protect against Moscow's attacks), Brussels is looking for mechanisms to provide a joint response to these types of episodes.

The head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, proposed this Monday to the member states an emergency protocol for all incidents "that fall below the threshold of armed aggression" to provide a "firmer" and joint response to Russia, as advanced by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, during the State of the Union address. As she detailed, the protocol must serve "for situations that do not reach the threshold of NATO's Article 5" nor that of Article 42.7 of the EU treaty, the mutual assistance clause that obliges member states to act.

Kallas assures that she has put this plan on the table because, according to intelligence data, "Russia is planning more acts of sabotage" with the goal of "dividing our society and intimidating us so that we do not help Ukraine." Therefore, she has stressed that the EU must be "capable of reacting" when it has intelligence information, "before these attacks actually take place."

The warning comes in a context of escalation. During the summer, there have been multiple episodes in which Russian planes and drones have violated the airspace of NATO countries. The most serious was the attempted attack with a drone loaded with explosives at Leipzig/Halle airport, which Germany formally attributed to Moscow. In this regard, last Thursday, Danish military intelligence warned of a "low but growing risk" that Russia could launch a limited military attack against a NATO country in the coming months.

However, the protocol is still only an idea. Kallas has described the debate as "very early" and has insisted that discussions will continue with member states in different formats. One of the fears that some countries have is that the mechanism proposed by Brussels could compete with NATO processes and create decision-making paths that overlap. "It is not about creating anything that overlaps with the Alliance, but rather that both mechanisms must work together," Kallas assured in a press conference, and indicated that the Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance, Mark Rutte, is aware of her plans.

Different sensitivities

Some of the countries most reluctant to the proposal are those closest to the border, as they bet on strengthening conventional deterrence. Finland, for example, has asked to address hybrid attacks "calmly" and for each country to decide which measures to take. For its part, Estonia has asked to focus attention on "a much greater threat: a large-scale invasion". Thus, its Minister of Defense, Martin Herem, has requested that what should be prepared are "conventional armed forces".

In contrast, other countries, such as Spain, are more favorable. "Hybrid aggressions are increasing every day," declared Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles after the meeting. She explained that "all countries have shown concern" about the hybrid attacks that aim to "prevent unity in support for Ukraine". And she detailed that, in recent months, the Spanish military contingent deployed in Romania has had to intervene in more than 15 episodes involving Russian fighter jets, and has had to shoot down a Russian drone.

On the other hand, during the meeting of EU Defense Ministers, the states reached an agreement to release 6.6 billion euros in aid to Ukraine with money coming from the European Peace Facility. Of the released funds, 900 million euros will be allocated to the EU military assistance mission in Ukraine and 1 billion will be for buying more weaponry, as stated in a message on X by Kallas. "Moscow's hybrid attacks are trying to intimidate Europe into reducing its support for Ukraine. Europe is doing the opposite," assures the Estonian leader.