Brazil votes between a worn-out Lula and the eldest son of Bolsonaro, who gathers the radical and discontented vote

São PauloA polarized Brazil heads to the polls this Sunday in the first round of the presidential election, which has turned into a neck-and-neck race of uncertain outcome between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party), who at 80 years old is facing the last electoral process of his long career, and the eldest son of the former president—now imprisoned—Jair Bolsonaro, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), 45 years old.

With entrenched positions and no room for a third way, 158 million Brazilians over the age of 16 will head to the electronic ballot boxes to decide the new president for the next four years, the 513 deputies who make up Congress, two-thirds of the Senate, the governors, and the respective regional chambers. The far-right and the swing parties of the Centrão are favorites to capture the legislative majority and regional power.

The latest polls place Lula with a slight lead in voting intention, 45% compared to 40% for the Bolsonaro family candidate. 17% of the electorate acknowledges that they could change their vote at the last minute and there is still 13% of undecided voters. In principle, it is ruled out that the contest will be decided in the first round, because, despite the call for a useful vote by the eldest Bolsonaro, the right-wing and other far-right candidates could gather up to 11% of support.

Lula da Silva, who is seeking reelection, arrives worn out and in a negative scenario—all polls indicate a technical tie with Flávio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical second round on October 25th—which his campaign team did not count on a few months ago. The strength of the main figure of the left in Latin America is diluting, and not due to longevity or a lack of succession.

There is evident fatigue regarding his figure among the centrist electorate, who are the ones who will end up deciding the contest. The institutional crisis, which has reached the Supreme Court, takes its toll on him as a guarantor of the status quo, even if it is a consequence of the four years of the Bolsonaro government, with the far-right corrupting institutions from within.

The left is harmed by the gap between the partially positive macroeconomic data –such as the unemployment rate, at historic lows, and the country's full employment situation– and the perception of the difficulties faced by families, heavily indebted with predatory loans to make ends meet. This dissociation has hindered the electoral growth expectations of Lula, who has governed with his hands tied by a conservative Congress.

Scandals in the Bolsonaro family

Furthermore, the expectations that Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy would end up disintegrating due to the senator's evident lack of charisma and the baggage of scandals that have accompanied him throughout his entire political career have not been met. From his close relationship with the paramilitaries (known in Brazil as milicianos) from Rio de Janeiro, which is his hometown, to the accusations of embezzlement of public funds from his office, with which he allegedly enriched himself. And, more recently, the Banco Master affair, already liquidated by the Central Bank and which has left a hole of 6.7 billion euros. In this case, there are recordings in which he asks for money from the president of the entity, Daniel Vorcaro, now imprisoned, to finance a biopic about his father. He has also been accused, during the campaign, of having participated in sexual parties with prostitutes.

Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for an attempted coup d'état, handpicked his firstborn, not for his electoral performance or with a possible victory in mind, but so that the family could maintain the monopoly on far-right radicalism. The loyalty of the extremist vote, however, does not erode in the face of any scandal, fueled by the bot machinery that effectively spreads fake news in an ecosystem organized since 2018.

The long shadow of Donald Trump and Marco Rubio from Washington, the support of evangelical churches, the financial market, large companies in the industrial sector—even though they were the ones most harmed by the tarifaço (tariff hike) of Trump that stoked the Bolsonaro family—and large media conglomerates, including Grupo Globo, have allowed Bolsonaro's son to do the unthinkable: have real chances of challenging Lula in the electoral race and, who knows, perhaps expelling him from the Planalto Palace.

The presidential elections, which will see their first round this Sunday, have turned into a war of attrition, raw and with a disillusioned electorate that will opt for the lesser evil, bearing in mind that both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro have an disapproval rating of almost half the population.

Lula, burning the bridges

Lula da Silva has sought to consolidate his traditional electoral base, made up of women, the elderly, and the poorest sector, with two last-minute measures announced during the election campaign, which have been very well received: the 15% increase in aid to poor families from Bolsa Família, the largest income transfer program on the planet, and the immediate ban on online betting, considered an epidemic due to its devastating impact on families. Data from the Brazilian Ministry of Finance indicate that last year legal online betting moved about 37 billion euros, with losses exceeding 6 billion euros.

On the other hand, Lula's candidacy has been favored by a war of religions started on social media and which has reached the Supreme Court. Flávio Bolsonaro, who converted to evangelicalism in 2024, has been accused of wanting to strip the Virgin of Aparecida – a black image found in the Paraíba do Sul river (in the state of São Paulo) and venerated since 1717 – of her status as patron saint of the country. The Supreme Court, meeting on an urgent basis, has ordered the removal from social media of any mention of this possible proposal, which has always been on the agenda of the fundamentalist and ultraconservative evangelical pastors who are part of the inner circle of the Bolsonaro family.

The senator has accused the Brazilian Episcopal Conference of maneuvering in favor of Lula and the Workers' Party, which since its foundation has had the support of the most progressive sectors of Catholicism. In fact, even today, Lula wins among the electorate that declares itself Catholic, which voted for him massively in 2022 and allowed his return to power, after spending a year and seven months in prison.