Bookmakers offer clues about the end of the war in Ukraine
Since the war began, Ukrainian songs have become anthems for Volodymyr Zelensky's troops. hit of this Christmas is Obimí, by the group Okean Elzy, very popular in the country. The title of the song means hug. The lyrics are simple: "When the day comes, the war will be over. There I lost myself, I hit rock bottom. Hold me, hold me, hold me sweetly and don't let go. Hold me until spring arrives." The lyrics are less combative than those of previous anthems.
These are once again supposedly decisive days for the future of Ukraine and Europe: the war is approaching its fourth anniversary, and Trump and all his instruments are pressuring Zelensky to accept the Russian-inspired peace plan before Christmas. "We are very close to reaching an agreement," Trump reiterated this weekend, like a mantra. In Kyiv, they still remember Zelensky's speech in November, which sounded like a capitulation.After the 28-point document was made public, the president told his compatriots, "We are facing one of the most difficult moments in our history." And the European Union, which averted that critical juncture, continues to walk a tightrope between not angering Washington and trying to have some minimal influence on the final solution regarding the Ukrainian front. In Brussels, the publication of the document is still a hot topic.United States national security strategy —which portrays the EU as a failed project— and perhaps even more so the scathing definition that the owner of Washington proclaimed in an interview in Political"A group of declining nations led by weak people who want to be overly politically correct." The moment of existential challenge is undeniable.
Last night, optimistic messages arrived from Berlin. The prevailing discourse among those present at the high-level meeting was that we are facing a "real opportunity", in Merz's words, to see a ceasefire in Ukraine. "Important progress" was highlighted regarding future security guarantees for Ukraine, but the machine remains stuck on the most crucial issue: the cession of territories that Putin demands. In the German capital, Zelensky was well surrounded: besides Chancellor Merz, Macron, Starmer, Meloni, Tusk, Rutte, Von der Leyen, Costa, and Trump's envoys were present. Pedro Sánchez, incidentally, was once again left out. His absence would have surprised us a few months ago, but since he stood firm against Trump's military demands, Madrid's role in the Ukraine negotiations has been relegated to a very discreet one. Is this a condition imposed by the White House?
Christmas is coming—spring will have to wait—and the question remains the same: when will the war in Ukraine end? Just a few months after the Russian invasion began, The question was already being repeated insistently in European chancelleries, offices and cafes. Almost four years of war have passed, and today—given the unpredictability and opacity of the main players, Trump and Putin—the best response remains the one Albert Camus wrote in 1947 in The plague"When war breaks out, people say it can't last, that it's too stupid. And, without a doubt, war is obviously too stupid, but that doesn't stop it from lasting. Stupidity always persists."
On my last trip to Ukraine, in September, I was surprised that the Ukrainians were more concerned about how the war would end than when.They know that the agreed-upon form is existentially decisive, and interesting questions arose: Is it fair to cede territory to the aggressor in exchange for peace? Who will guarantee that Russia will not attack again? Who will take charge of rebuilding an entire country? Yesterday, Berlin's European optimism even touched upon some of these questions. The archives urge us not to rush to conclusions.
This week, Instagram's algorithm revealed to me that there is a North American platform where You can bet in real time on the war in Ukraine. You can make all sorts of predictions. "Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the end of 2025?" they ask. The system believes there's only a 4% chance of this happening. If you bet on the YeahYou would win $20 for every dollar bet. More questions: "Will Russia capture Pokrovsk [the Ukrainian city]?"30% of users believe it will happen before January 15th. "Will Putin cease to be president of Russia in 2025?": 0.6% probability currently. And in 2026? 14% probability. "Will Russia invade a NATO country?": 1% probability of it happening before the end of the year; 7% before June 2026. "Will Zelensky wear a suit and tie during his next meeting with Trump?": 11% probability. "Will the United States leave NATO before 2027?": 17%. The list of questions and bets is almost as long as the lack of ethics involved in gambling with war.
The X algorithm then presented me with two large videos, which, viewed almost simultaneously, emphasize that war is not a game. The first one had been recorded in the city of Odessa and captured a painful scene: A Ukrainian soldier, wounded in war, stood frozen on a jetty, gazing at the raging Black Sea. The soldier remained motionless, oblivious to the storm, lost in thought, even as waves splashed around him and the seawater lapped at his feet and ankles. What had that soldier seen that he didn't even move?
The second video had been recorded in Moscow, on the other side of the war. There were no soldiers there, only their widows: women mourning the deaths of husbands killed fighting Putin's war in Ukraine. The images were from a tribute to the families of Russian soldiers who had fallen on the Ukrainian front. During the ceremony, the song was played. Katiuixawhich tells the story of a woman waiting for her beloved, sent to the front lines of World War II. The war on repeat.