Armenia maintains its course towards the West with Pashinyan's broad victory

MoscowThere has been no surprise in Armenia's legislative elections. The party of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has achieved a comfortable victory that will allow him to form a government and continue with the strategy of approaching the European Union and the United States and distancing itself from Russia. These results also validate the peace process initiated by the Armenian leader almost a year ago to end a conflict of nearly four decades with Azerbaijan. However, the parliamentary majority is insufficient to amend the Constitution and eliminate the claim to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, as Baku demands to conclude the agreement.

Pashinyan's party, Civil Contract, obtained 49% of the votes and 63 seats, ten above the absolute majority. Only two other parties surpassed the representation threshold, both pro-Russian. The main opposition party, Hayastan (Armenia) – led by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan – secured 23% of the votes and 30 seats, while the Armenian Alliance, of former president Robert Kocharyan, came close to 10% of the votes with 12 deputies. Voter turnout was 59%, almost ten points higher than in 2021, but fragmentation meant that nearly 17% of the votes cast went to extra-parliamentary candidacies.

Pashinyan, who declared victory in the early hours with just 10% of the votes counted, assured that he “will continue to strengthen ties with the West,” and the President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, responded: “Armenia can count on us.” At the same time, the prime minister-elect insists that he will maintain membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, the supranational organization led by Russia, and denies that relations with Moscow are deteriorating, despite the fact that in recent weeks they have banned imports of Armenian products and threatened to cut off gas and oil supplies to Yerevan. “I don't see any tension, it's artificial tension,” Pashinyan said during election day.

The Kremlin has not yet reacted to Pashinyan's victory, who has stated his intention to travel to Moscow, as well as Brussels and Washington, once he takes office. On the eve of the elections, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had threatened not to recognize the results due to the arrests of political rivals of the prime minister. "Pashinyan has soiled himself and is now trying to eliminate all his rivals in the elections. These elections will obviously not be considered legitimate," he wrote.

The opposition leader has called the electoral process "shameful" and has reported over 700 arrests of his supporters and candidates in recent days. Armenian authorities assure that this is an operation to dismantle a vote-buying network linked to Karapetyan's party, who is also under house arrest, in his case for allegedly calling for the overthrow of the government in 2025. Pashinyan has stated that a large part of the opposition's votes have been bought and has added that the leaders of the pro-Russian forces must be prosecuted. Critics, however, consider it an example of the growing erosion of political pluralism and the lack of judicial independence under Pashinyan's increasingly populist and personalist mandate.

Insufficient assessment of the peace process

Despite the decline in Pashinyan's popularity after the defeat in the 2023 Karabakh war, which ended with the forced exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians, the Civil Contract has achieved more votes than in the last elections, albeit with fewer seats. The prime minister's party has fallen far short of the two-thirds of Parliament needed to call a referendum and make the constitutional changes required by Baku, and therefore will have to seek alternative ways to unblock the agreement with Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan, who has not commented on how he will resolve this issue, has called to "institutionalize" the peace process and open the border with Turkey. "The people of Armenia have voted for peace, prosperity, and regional cooperation, and I hope to receive positive reactions from Turkey and Azerbaijan," said the candidate. He also believes that the works to build the corridor between the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan and Baku through Armenian territory, the so-called Trump Route, must begin "as soon as possible".