England, Wales and Scotland open the ballot boxes for a 'Super Thursday' in which Keir Starmer stakes it all

LondonAt seven in the morning this Thursday, local time, polling stations have opened on a day that could be decisive for the political future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Millions of citizens are called to the polls to renew almost 5,000 councilor positions in different local authorities in England, including the 32 districts of London; and the national parliaments of Scotland and Wales. The final results will not begin to be known until well into the early hours of Friday and, above all, throughout the morning and midday, when the most important counts are completed. Political expectation is at its peak in Westminster because the super-Thursday will be the first major verdict on the management of the premier since he arrived at Downing Street, less than two years ago.

Polls predict that the Labour Party may lose between 1,500 and 2,000 councilors in England's municipal councils; that it will hardly resist as the second political force in the parliament of Holyrood (Scotland); and that it could also lose the Welsh assembly after a century of domination. Labour has controlled autonomous power in Cardiff since devolution, twenty-seven years ago, and has never lost a general election in Wales in over a hundred years. If the polls are confirmed, and Labour assumes defeat on all three fronts, the voices already calling for an orderly succession for Starmer may grow even louder and become widespread.

Critics, in fact, have been suggesting for weeks, through all sorts of leaks to the media, that Starmer's hypothetical successor should be in Downing Street by the end of September, coinciding with the party's annual congress.

The triple electoral appointment comes in a context of great wear and tear for Keir Starmer due to the scandal of the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States; also due to a series of constant changes in social policies during his twenty-two months in power that have alienated him from his more progressive voters.

All of this has contributed to the growing feeling that there is neither captain nor compass in the engine room of Westminster, with a government subjected to a very uncertain international juncture that heavily burdens the economy.

The threats to Labour are of three different types, and in each of the three territories mentioned, they have specific characteristics. We will now see what they are:

The pincer movement between Reform and the Greens in England

Last year's English local –and by-election– results showed that the Reform Party, led by the populist and xenophobic Nigel Farage, could seriously undermine the Conservatives' power. This Thursday, the big challenge for Farage is to also establish himself as a threat to Labour, with the general election of 2029 in sight.

Reform, which now has eight MPs in the House of Commons, has topped the polls in England since May 2025, when it gained almost 700 new councillors. Polls suggest that the vast majority of Labour's losses (1,791 councillors) will swell Farage's personalised party, which could gain around 1,750.

But this is not the only danger facing Starmer and his party in the various English municipal councils. Labour is also besieged from the left by the Green Party, which has had a new leader since last September, Zack Polanski. It is in the 32 districts of London where the Greens could deepen the wound that Reform can inflict on Labour in the more rural areas.

Wales, the end of hegemony?

For months, winds of change have been blowing in Cardiff. In mid-October last year, Labour lost one of its most solid strongholds in Wales in a by-election for the Senedd (the Welsh Parliament) for the first time in over a century. The defeat, largely driven by the enthusiasm and desire for change among the younger population, was secured by the independentist Plaid Cymru, and served as a real wake-up call for Downing Street. Labour's First Minister, Eluned Morgan, attributed the failure to the burden of Starmer's management of the central government, according to sources very close to Morgan herself, confirmed by ARA.

And the weight of the slab has increased since last autumn as a result of the aforementioned scandals that have affected Starmer. The Labour Party's prospects are slim, according to the polls. A Plaid Cymru that has lowered the tone of its independence has many possibilities of dislodging Labour from power in a territory that has been the ideological laboratory and the party's main bastion for over a century. These same polls place Reform as the true rival of the independentists. The labour would occupy third place, which would mean a disaster of historical proportions.

The modification of the electoral system, adopting the D'Hondt formula, the increase in the number of seats to 96 (from the previous 60), in sixteen constituencies, and the reduction of the voting age to sixteen years makes many observers look at the polls with skepticism. In any case, the average of the polls grants 29% of the votes to Plaid Cymru and between 30 and 35 seats, while it grants Farage's formation around 27% of the votes, with a similar number of deputies.

Will the SNP's hegemony in Edinburgh continue?

In 2024, in the general elections, Labour won 37 out of the 57 seats at stake in the country's constituencies in Scotland. The Scottish National Party (SNP), hegemonic north of Hadrian's Wall since Alex Salmond's first victory in 2007, seemed to have gradually reached the end of its domination.

But polls indicate that Scottish independence supporters will achieve an extraordinary fifth term, with between 55 and 65 MPs. If they reach this maximum figure, they would secure an absolute majority which, according to the Scottish First Minister, John Swinney, would open the door to a second independence referendum.

would take third place, which would mean a disaster of historic proportions.

Beyond the uncertainty about whether the SNP will achieve an absolute majority or not, the other big question to be resolved in Scotland is whether Labour will come in second or third place, behind the Reform Party. In early February, and following the aforementioned scandals regarding Mandelson's appointment, the leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sarwar, called for Starmer's resignation. If Sarwar comes in third place, his resignation will indeed be inevitable.

But without standing in any of the elections directly, it is Keir Starmer who has the most to lose this electoral super Tuesday. The Prime Minister must demonstrate that he still governs more than just inertia, which could see him ousted from Downing Street in a few months. If he has held on so far, it is because the party has not yet found a reliable replacement. Even so, there is no shortage of candidates.