Warning over the risk of civil war in Iran

BarcelonaAmid the confusion generated by the White House's erratic communication policy—which offers a different reason each day for launching a war against Iran—there are signs that indicate that President Donald Trump I wanted to repeat the Venezuelan modelThat is, to force a change in the country's leadership, trusting that the new leaders would comply with Washington's demands. Given the defiant reaction of the ayatollahs' regime, and the rumors of the imminent election of a hawk like Mukhta Khamenei—son of the assassinated Supreme Leader—as the country's new leader, Trump may be tempted to move to plan B: pressuring the Iranian regime, which could incite an armed rebellion. In fact, in recent days, several reports indicate that the CIA, probably with the help of Mossad, is planning to arm Iranian Kurdish militias based in northern Iraq to launch a ground offensive against Iran. Trump himself reportedly spoke with the president of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) to urge his militia to join the war against the Islamic Republic. The fact that Israeli and American bombings have particularly targeted Iranian security forces in the border region with Iraq reinforces the perception that Washington is inciting a rebellion in regions inhabited by ethnic minorities, where there is greater opposition to the government.

As in other countries in the region, Iran is a very ethnically and culturally diverse country. While there is a majority Shia and Persian identity, the population that identifies with it does not exceed 60%. Among the minorities living in the country's periphery, there is a widespread perception of marginalization, both culturally and economically, as these are the poorest provinces.

The country's main minority is the Azeris, the majority ethnic group in Azerbaijan, representing 20% ​​of the population. Turkic-speaking and Shia, they are considered the best-integrated minority in Iran, a status they have held for centuries. Indeed, both Ali Khamenei and the Supreme leader assassinated, like the country's presidentMasoud Pezeshkian, among others, are part of this. In contrast, the most marginalized minorities are the Kurds—10% of the population—and the Baloch—around 3%. Both have armed groups fighting for the sovereignty of their nations, but they are not powerful enough to seize control of any territory.

Fragmentation of the country

A collaboration between the United States and these organizations presents both opportunities and risks. On the one hand, the sum of their efforts will increase their operational and military capabilities, but at the same time, it will give the regime a very powerful propaganda weapon: Washington does not want regime change, but rather to fragment Iran. In a country so nationalistic and proud of its history, the risk of secession could sway sectors of the population that are rather politically neutral, or even opposed to the regime, toward supporting a military campaign against these potential secessionist forces. The American and Israeli bombs that have been falling continuously across the country in recent days could also contribute to this effect. rally around the flag, That is, to unite society in the face of an external force that causes suffering to the population.

Normally, a prerequisite for the outbreak of a civil war is that the army splits in two. This is what happened in Spain in 1936, and in more recent experiences such as the Syrian civil warHowever, there is currently no indication that this will happen in Iran. The Islamic Republic has a conglomerate of security forces, some of which are highly ideologized, such as the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij paramilitary volunteer corps. Therefore, the scenario of mass defections seems unlikely.

Thus, the only way a conflict that could be classified as a civil war will erupt in the coming weeks is if some of these Kurdish or Baloch militias are able to conquer and control a significant swathe of territory. This scenario is only possible with very strong and sustained US support, which should include the establishment of a no-fly zone.

There is already a precedent in the region, precisely in Iraqi KurdistanThis is how the current Kurdistan Regional Government was established in the wake of the 1991 Gulf War. According to Kurdish sources cited in the international press, the Kurdish militias in Iran are considering Washington's offer, but have stipulated that the support must be robust and sustained over time. In the longer term, it cannot be ruled out that Iran will descend into a more brutal civil war if the regime remains entrenched and refuses to reform. Once this war is over, the Iranian political equation will return to the same parameters as a month ago, albeit reinforced by the devastation of the country: the majority of the population wants more freedom and is fed up with living in a chronic economic crisis. As happened in Syria, if the only response to demands for change is always bloody repression, sooner or later, even in the heart of the Persian nation, at least a segment of the opposition will opt for armed struggle. Then yes, civil war or Iran becoming a failed state could be inevitable.