A 34-year-old plumber further undermines Keir Starmer's lead

LondonPrime Minister Keir Starmer woke up this Friday morning with a new headacheAnother factor will put more pressure on an already weakened leadership. Overtaken by the Green Party, Labour suffered a catastrophic result in the by-election held this Thursday in the Gorton and Denton district, a traditional Labour stronghold in south Manchester. Two years ago, in the July 2024 elections, he Labour She achieved 50.8% of the vote. Yesterday, she plummeted to exactly half that: 25.4%, relegating her to third place, even behind Nigel Farage's Reform Party.

Hannah Spencer, a 34-year-old plumber and a relative newcomer to politics, secured a comfortable victory with more than 4,400 votes over Farage's populists. The results for the Conservatives were even more devastating than for the government, which garnered just over 700 votes.

In a district practically divided into two large areas, one predominantly Muslim (Gorton) and the other predominantly white and working class (Denton), the ballot boxes revealed what all the polls had already indicated: the double hemorrhage the government is suffering. On the left, in favor of the Greens, who have embraced the more socially progressive policies that were once the hallmark of Labour, denouncing the country's enormous inequalities. On the right, in favor of the Reformists, who make immigration the scapegoat for all ills.

After the results were made official, the newly elected MP Hannah Spencer – who, in addition to being a plumber, earned the title of plasterer two weeks ago – sought to combat the racist message spewed by the Reform Party: "Life has changed. We work to fill the pockets of the multimillionaires. Let's pit them against each other."

In general, by-elections – which take place when an MP is absent for whatever reason – are always difficult for the party in government. But the one held yesterday in south Manchester is also particularly significant for the state of British politics: both traditional parties, Labour and Conservatives, only managed to secure 27.3% of the vote; The other two, Green and Reformist, garnered 69.4%. The key question, which remains unanswered, is whether the two-party system is eroding permanently or is merely a passing fad.

May 7th as the final date?

A few weeks ago, as a result of The Epstein scandal and his relationship with the former British ambassador to the United States, Peter Mandelson, the head of premier, Keir Starmer, He was on the verge of collapse, but the situation is now more serious. His decisions, both tactical and strategic, have further contributed to his downfall in the midterm elections. All fingers are pointing at him, waiting for the opportune moment and the ideal, consensus candidate to bring him down. Starmer has called the result "disappointing."

Starmer's decision to veto the popular mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham – they call him The King of the North—, should he run in the election, it could now be seen as shooting himself in the foot. The excuse for barring him was that he would leave the mayoralty vacant and trigger an unnecessary election. But the reality is that Burnham, further to the left than Starmer, is seen as a possible alternative to his leadership. But to be so, he must have a seat in the House of Commons. In other words, Starmer eliminated a potential rival in case the local elections in England and the national elections in Wales and Scotland on May 7 go very badly for Labour, as all the polls indicate.

Strategic decisions have also done Starmer no favors. Although he came in leading the party, endorsing the left-wing principles of his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, once in power he systematically eliminated them. And he purged the entire left wing, moving closer to center and right-wing positions. Especially on the key issue of immigration, to the point of embracing the arguments of the extremist Nigel Farage. More circumstantial aspects, such as his initially timid stance on the genocide in Gaza, have severely damaged his standing among the Muslim population of Gorton and Denton.

What is most worrying for Labour is that this Friday, Transport Minister Heidi Alexander, tasked with mitigating the media backlash, doubled down on technocratic rhetoric, defending the decisions made, rejecting any self-criticism, and insisting that the government is implementing the right policies. The narrative is clear: "We are fixing what we inherited; it takes time." But in the context of a cost-of-living crisis, precarious employment, and strained public services, the macroeconomic narrative—lower inflation, reduced energy cap—does not replace the everyday perception of hardship. And the Reform Party, with its fight against immigration as its banner, is already on that path.

Farage offers outrage, the Greens offer idealism, and Labour offers prudence. The real test for Starmer will come on May 7, with the aforementioned local and national elections in England, Scotland, and Wales. If the party confirms the losses predicted by the polls, and it sinks especially in WalesInternal tensions and the debate over strategy will intensify, and the leader will erupt openly. But the one rubbing his hands together the most, for now, is Nigel Farage. Because the Conservatives are in freefall, his party is on a meteoric rise, and the Greens, despite their victory in Gorton and Denton, still don't seem like a sufficiently solid alternative on the left.