The Government, on the arrival of the super- Niño in Catalonia: "We have entered an unknown climatic territory"

BarcelonaEl Niño is already a reality. It has been brewing for months in the Pacific Ocean with a constant warming of subtropical waters, and from the outset it has been labeled a super-Niño, as the ocean temperature anomaly is the highest recorded so far. Latest data indicate that these waters have exceeded 4 ºC above the average, a value never seen since records began.

A Niño is considered very strong – the maximum level – when it exceeds 2 ºC of oceanic temperature anomaly. The most intense super-Niño to date was that of 2015-2016, with an anomaly that approached 3 ºC, although still far below current record values. The scenario that is emerging is conditioned by global warming, which opens the door to unpredictable climatic consequences, also in Catalonia, as it is the most powerful natural climate variability phenomenon on the planet.

"This temperature anomaly is so exaggerated and unprecedented that we are entering a scenario that is difficult to predict," assured this Wednesday the director of the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (Meteocat), Sarai Sarroca, in an informative session on El Niño. "A phenomenon of this type, so strong, added to global warming, generates uncertainty in our country and around the world," she added.

"We have entered unknown climatic territory, and we do not know what may happen in the coming months," explained Vicent Altava, technician in the area of Applied Research and Modeling of Meteocat. The expert highlighted that the exceptional warming of the Pacific waters is notable not only for a temperature never seen before, but also for its extension over thousands of kilometers. "We are talking about a real barbarity, since the data pulverizes previous El Niño phenomena.

But its effects will take time to reach Catalonia. Ground zero is the subtropical Pacific, from where a domino effect occurs that extends to the rest of the planet. The most affected areas are those of the Pacific, with torrential rains in parts of the west coast of America and extreme droughts on the other side of the ocean. However, the climate is altered everywhere with extreme meteorological phenomena. In Catalonia, the consequences are expected next spring.

How will it affect Catalonia?

It has always been said that El Niño causes droughts and more heat in Catalonia, while La Niña periods – the opposite phenomenon which involves a cooling of the Pacific waters – produce rain in our region. But Meteocat data show that this is not always the case. “El Niño's effects reach Catalonia indirectly, but they are not unidirectional; there is no clear link between this phenomenon and drought or a torrid summer,” assures Altava.

According to the expert, the reason lies in the fact that El Niño is the result of a chain of events, and a small variation in this process can cause very different effects in Catalonia. Altava recalls that El Niño can also cause an alteration in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the main driver of the climate in Europe and, consequently, in Catalonia. One of the possible scenarios observed is that this phenomenon could cause a strengthening of the subtropical jet stream. This would push the classic Azores anticyclone further east, affecting us directly, which would lead to less rain and more heat in our region.

“We predict that this domino effect will eventually reach Catalonia and add to global warming, and we will see if its effects ultimately bring us more drought or more rain from next spring onwards,” remarked Sarroca, adding that this summer's exceptional heat “is not yet related to El Niño”.

Decades ago, a slightly clearer correlation was observed between El Niño and increased drought in some areas of the country, such as the eastern Pyrenees and the Terres de l'Ebre. But since 2022, temperatures have soared and meteorological phenomena are more extreme, making it difficult to identify this link. “With global warming, a strong El Niño is not necessary in Catalonia to experience unprecedented drought or a torrid summer,” concluded Altava.