Global alert for the super-El Niño: the consequences are unpredictable
The UN warns that the meteorological phenomenon is, in all likelihood, the largest of this type that the planet's history has experienced
The world knew that the next El Niño would be powerful, but this Thursday the forecasts confirmed that this climatic phenomenon will be of great intensity and that it will have unpredictable consequences. The UN warns that the peak of this episode will be experienced at the end of 2026, but that it will extend until 2027, a year that could become the warmest ever recorded.
El Niño entails a significant increase in the risk of suffering extreme meteorological phenomena across the planet and, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), it could be the strongest in history. The climate agency announced today that its forecasts ensure with 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February of next year, and that it is "oversized", that is to say, that it has consolidated and continues to grow stronger.
"It is assuming enormous proportions before our eyes. Science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is entering uncharted waters (...) Temperatures continue to rise and the world is already in the danger zone", warned Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO.
Faced with this alert, countries are preparing for the impact of the phenomenon. Its effects range from intense rainfall to droughts, especially in areas of Latin America. If we are talking about a very intense episode, as is the case, precipitation and temperature patterns around the world can be significantly altered, a fact that also favors extreme weather events.
A warming ocean
El Niño is a climatic phenomenon that happens from time to time, that is to say, it is periodic, and consists of a warming of the sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific. This increase in temperature is caused by a change in trade winds, it occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts about 12 months.
Although it is natural and not directly related to climate change, global warming caused by human action has increased water temperatures and worsened this phenomenon.
According to the WMO, in certain areas of the Pacific surface, normal temperature levels are already exceeded by more than 2 degrees. If the projected trajectory of the phenomenon continues, it would "go off the charts". However, the depths of the waters are also a concern: below the surface, the accumulated heat reaches a more exceptional magnitude, and in some areas, temperatures have exceeded the average by more than 8 degrees.
At this moment, the effects of El Niño are already beginning to be felt in some parts of the planet. In fact, it has already had an impact on tropical agricultural products and has caused a severe food crisis in the dry corridor of Central America.
However, the largest climate scientific authority has called for calm and prevention and a "step towards action": "El Niño does not have to be a recipe for disaster," assured Saulo, who explains that there are the necessary forecasts and capacity for anticipation to save lives and protect livelihoods. However, he has made a call for immediate action and has asked governments to make decisions, especially regarding agricultural production.
How will it affect us in Europe?
The effects of this super-El Niño will be experienced at their maximum intensity this winter: in the United States, as well as in Canada and Europe, significant anomalies will be experienced, especially regarding snow patterns. According to Severe Weather Europe, which analyzes weather patterns around the world, in the Old Continent we will experience widespread snow deficits, especially in the northwest, south, and north-central regions. The reason is a mild flow coming from the west, from the Atlantic, and a ridge coming from the south that is rising, which keeps temperatures too high to allow for widespread snow cover, except in higher altitude areas.
In Catalonia, its effects will arrive indirectly and much later, since we are literally at the other end of the world from the epicenter of El Niño. We will not notice them until next year, just when the phenomenon is already in its final phase in the Pacific. That said, higher than normal temperatures are guaranteed in our home and around the world, and in the context of global warming, this suggests that temperatures never seen before could be reached.