Catalonia confirms the worst climate scenario in just four years

BarcelonaCatalonia is advancing unstoppably towards an increasingly warm and dry climate. 2025 has been the fourth consecutive year with an annual temperature of more than 2°C above the average of the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). Therefore, since 2022, temperatures have soared like never before. And they have been exceptionally warm. These last four years mark the path towards the worst predictions of the impact of the climate crisis and global warming in our country.

This is the main conclusion drawn from the data in the latest Annual Bulletin of Climate Indicators (BAIC) of Catalonia, published this Tuesday by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (Meteocat), which analyzes the state and evolution of the climate in the country year after year. The report particularly highlights daytime temperatures, which are warming at a very accelerated rate. According to the analyzed data, the maximum temperature has grown at a rate of 0.33°C per decade, while the minimum has increased by 0.22°C.

"The last four years confirm an increasingly firm and radical trend towards higher temperatures. It is a persistent warming that we have not seen before and that we are failing to reverse, and this is worrying," assures Marc Prohom, head of the climatology area at Meteocat, in statements to ARA. The expert adds that high temperatures are rising in latitude, and highlights the case of Figueres (Alt Empordà), which currently registers temperatures similar to those reached in Amposta (Montsià) "30 or 40 years ago".

Change in atmospheric circulation

Data indicates that each decade we add between four and six days with temperatures above 30 °C in Catalonia. It should be taken into account that the warming of more than 2 °C in recent years in Catalonia compared to pre-industrial values is much higher than for the planet as a whole, which is 1.4 °C. This is explained because the Mediterranean is one of the fastest warming areas in the world. Furthermore, Europe is the continent where the temperature is rising the most, and in the last five years it already accumulates an increase of 2.4 °C compared to pre-industrial values.

"All this is explained by the change in atmospheric circulation: we are increasingly experiencing the typical climate of North Africa, with intrusions of warm winds from the south, more frequent and longer heatwaves, and subtropical anticyclones that expand more frequently," states Prohom, who highlights that all of this means that 35 °C or 40 °C are now reached "more easily" in Catalonia.

Indicators associated with extremely high temperatures show a clear upward trend, while cold episodes are becoming less frequent. A notable example is that of tropical nights, where the temperature does not drop below 20 °C: 39 more are currently recorded annually on the coast than 76 years ago.

Hot days have also increased significantly. Compared to 1950, the southern half of Catalonia now accumulates 43 more hot days per year, while in the north the increase is 34. These conclusions are based on the study of 28 complete and homogeneous meteorological series distributed throughout Catalonia. 2025 was the third warmest year recorded in the country since the mid-20th century, with 2022 being the warmest year in history in Catalonia.

Less and less rain

The evolution of precipitation in Catalonia shows a less clear pattern than that of temperatures. The analysis of 73 meteorological series distributed throughout the country indicates an average decrease in annual precipitation of 1.8% per decade between 1950 and 2025. However, the trend cannot yet be considered "conclusive".

Recent years have been marked by great variability. After the historic drought, 2025 stood out for abundant or very abundant rainfall in much of Catalonia. Where a clear trend is observed is during the summer, the only season in which precipitation decreases significantly (4.4% less per decade). This represents a drop of 33% in summer rainfall in the last 76 years, and a reduction of 45 l/m² compared to summers in the mid-20th century.

In any case, the data do conclude an increase in the duration and intensity of droughts in recent years. This will be the trend in the coming decades. "The rainy winter we have experienced this year should not be the trend," states Prohom, who warns that we must bet on "adaptation" to the new climate scenario "without forgetting mitigation".

On the other hand, for the first time, the analysis of wind data in Catalonia reveals a sustained decrease in its intensity over the last 27 years. The average wind speed has decreased by 4.9% per decade, the equivalent of 0.43 km/h less every ten years. Episodes of very strong and extremely strong winds have also been reduced, especially north of Cape Creus, where between 25 and 28 fewer days of extremely intense wind are now recorded.