The political message of the budgets

The approval of a budget always has two dimensions. The first is that it allows administrations to function normally and have more resources to carry out specific policies. From this point of view, the approval of accounts is always good news, because it is a measure that positively impacts both public services and the economy in general due to the flow of resources, for example for infrastructure, that it entails. The second dimension is political. In the case of the accounts approved yesterday by the executive council and presented to Parliament, they represent the cornerstone that will allow Salvador Illa to complete his term.

Political fragmentation makes the approval of budgets increasingly difficult, and what was once an annual routine has today become an exceptional event. Until now, the Generalitat was operating with the extended accounts from 2023, given that in 2024 Comuns rejected Pere Aragonès' proposals and last year there were none. In the State government, Pedro Sánchez faces his last year of his term without having approved a single budget; and at the regional level, the PP has had to advance elections in Extremadura and Aragon because Vox rejected them – and now has had to negotiate with the far-right under worse conditions.

Therefore, beyond the numbers themselves, which are also the same as those presented in February, the importance of these budgets is vital for Catalan politics, as they give Illa the oxygen to reach the end of his term. Next year is an election year, with municipal elections scheduled for May, and in 2028 it will be time to go to the polls again. Therefore, it is very plausible that these accounts, which are expected to be approved in early July, will serve for the next two years at least.

Illa, therefore, can breathe easy and dispel any doubt about the continuity of his government. But the partners who approved them also breathe. ERC still needs time to recover from the 2024 blow and heal the wounds of the internal battle that ended with Oriol Junqueras's victory. Furthermore, Junqueras himself is awaiting the application of the amnesty to be able to be a candidate, as he is currently still disqualified. Comuns is also in a weak position after the poor results of two years ago. Therefore, no one was interested in an early election. On the contrary, the parties can now focus on preparing for municipal elections that appear to be key to gauging the advance of the far right.

It is true that ERC and Comuns have agreed on some specific items in the budget – for example, to strengthen the Catalan Tax Agency or to fight against energy poverty –, but the breakthrough has been basically political. The Government must now take advantage of all this financial oxygen to resolve pending issues, such as the negotiation with teachers, the strengthening of healthcare, and the boost to the productive economy. Because it is now when the Government's management will be better judged, as it will no longer have the excuse of a lack of resources.