The hybrid war against the EU is a reality
Although many Eastern European countries had already accused Russia of practicing what is called "hybrid warfare" against them, it is now Germany that has directly accused Moscow of being behind the incident in early August at Leipzig airport, when a drone loaded with explosives impacted a Ukrainian plane without exploding. A month later, the investigation by German authorities reaches this conclusion after analyzing the drone's operation and characteristics. In August, the German Defense Minister, Alexander Dobrindt, was already very clear when he stated: "We are the daily target of hybrid warfare".
On July 13, France attributed a cyberespionage campaign to the FSB, the Russian secret services, and even revealed the codename of the responsible department: Unit 61240. The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian ambassador to Paris for consultations while the Élysée called on all European partners to prepare to face all these hybrid warfare attacks. This Monday, the Spanish President, Pedro Sánchez, attributed to "digital forums" from Russia and Israel the amplification of news about the massive entry into Ceuta with a clear destabilizing intent. And if we go back further, in 2017 a CIA investigation determined that there had been Russian interference during the 2016 presidential campaign that favored Donald Trump's candidacy and harmed Hillary Clinton's.
In the European case, it is very easy to know what the Kremlin's objectives are. Vladimir Putin seeks to weaken the European Union project, which he perceives as an existential threat to the values it represents, and his strategy involves increasing citizens' discontent and distrust towards its institutions and electorally favoring far-right forces, which are by definition nationalist and anti-Europeanist. Moscow's thesis is very simple: a divided EU will always be much less powerful and easier to manipulate.
And the truth is that so far it seems that Russia is having quite a bit of success in its strategy. The European Union has not been able to provide a coordinated response to crises like the one in Ceuta, and countries like Italy have re-established migratory controls as Germany itself had done before. The influence of the far-right is only growing, and it is dragging traditional conservative parties and even some left-wing parties like the Danish one towards its anti-immigration discourse. It is also true that they have suffered defeats, such as Viktor Orbán's defeat in Hungary, but Putin knows that the great battle that could decide the future of the EU will be next year's French presidential elections, in which Marine Le Pen is the favorite. That is why Europe – the governments of the states and also that of the EU – must stop being naive and face an uncomfortable reality: there is an undeclared and unconventional war with Russia in which its future is at stake.