The danger of a regional escalation with global consequences

As expected, the Iranian regime has responded to the US and Israeli offensive against its territory by attempting to prolong the conflict as much as possible, turning it into a regional war. From day one, Tehran attacked the Persian Gulf countries where US bases are located (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman), and this Monday, Hezbollah, Iran's allied militia in Lebanon, joined the fray, launching missiles at Israel. The conflict has even reached EU territory, as an Iranian drone struck a British base in Cyprus.

The Iranian regime's strategy, therefore, is clear. It aims to prolong the conflict so that it carries a high price for Washington's allies, especially the Persian Gulf monarchies. The other lever Iran can use to influence the global economy is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, something that is already driving up gas prices. That is why Donald Trump seeks a swift war with minimal economic costs, even at the price of reaching an agreement with the moderate and pragmatic sectors of the ayatollahs' regime, following the Venezuelan model. Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, aims for the total annihilation of the theocratic regime to secure his regional hegemony, even if this prolongs the war and increases its costs. This strategic difference between Washington and Tel Aviv, as well as the Iranian regime's ability to maintain its missile and drone launch capabilities, will determine the future of the conflict. Tehran, incidentally, is not alone: ​​China has assured it of its support, and both Turkey and Russia have condemned the attack.

In contrast, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have rushed to support the military operation, perhaps fearing being sidelined on the global stage. French President Emmanuel Macron has made it known that his country will not only increase its nuclear arsenal but has also warned that it is prepared to use it. Pedro Sánchez's Spain is once again the exception and has denied the United States permission to use the Morón de la Frontera air base to refuel the tanker aircraft used in the operation. Time will tell if this new clash with the United States has consequences, but no one can deny that the Spanish president is acting in accordance with his principles.

For now, as we enter the fourth day of the war, the danger of a regional escalation of the conflict with global consequences is more real than ever. The United States and Israel have decapitated the regime in a spectacular intelligence and military precision operation, but that has not meant its immediate collapse. Tehran knows Trump doesn't want to send troops on the ground and seems willing to play the internal resistance card (perhaps with Chinese help?) and try to set the whole region ablaze. They believe that if the war spreads and becomes protracted, Trump will have an incentive to seek a negotiated solution. The problem, in this case, will be Benjamin Netanyahu.