A former minister in prison for corruption, another survival challenge for Sánchez

Pedro Sánchez has proven to be an indefatigable politician who can handle almost anything. He has faced so many challenges throughout his political career, both within the party and in government, that it would be very risky to write him off. Now, another obstacle has been added to his list of challenges. the imprisonment of the former Minister of Transport And his former right-hand man, José Luis Ábalos, is being held in pretrial detention "due to a high risk of flight," along with his advisor at the ministry, Koldo García. The PSOE is feigning calm and recalling that a year and a half ago, when it became known the corruption accusation For receiving illegal commissions in the purchase of masks by companies linked to the ministry, Ábalos was already removed from the party and, as a deputy, he joined the mixed group as an independent. However, the symbolic image of him entering prison is a heavy blow to the credibility of the Sánchez government. In fact, although this pretrial detention doesn't add much to what has already been said and known about the case—which is quite serious, given that it all happened during the pandemic and represents a despicable exploitation of the need for masks at the time—the endemic corruption surrounding the Prime Minister's inner circle, which the political and judicial right is trying to bring down by any means possible, is a significant blow to his credibility. What saves the Socialists in this case is that, in the field of corruption, the Popular Party still has the advantage in the number of cases, and even in the involvement of high-ranking officials.

However, Ábalos's imprisonment adds pressure to the PSOE because they also lose a vote in Congress, since although the former minister was in the mixed group, he still voted with the Socialists when he was present. Now, the governing majority is increasingly slim, as it can no longer count on Junts, which publicly withdrew its support. This has been seen in the vote on the deficit and debt targets, which the PSOE has lost due to the votes against it from the PP, Vox, and Junts. Although there is another opportunity to present these objectives, which are the necessary step before the budget can be drawn up, it is already assumed that, once again, no budget will be approved. Sánchez, however, continues to insist that he will finish his term and does not foresee general elections until 2027. We will see if the results of the elections in Extremadura, which are in December, and those in Andalusia and Castile and León, next year, make him change his mind. For the moment, he is confident that the positive macroeconomic data—this week the OECD considered Spain to be one of the fastest-growing economies—and its role in the international arena will allow him to remain in government. As for the support of his allies in Congress, what works most in his favor is their fear of Vox's rise in the polls and the Popular Party's subservience to Abascal's party. This was seen in the election of the new president of the Valencian Generalitat, Juanfran Pérez Llorca, who made a "garra-gara" gesture in Vox to gain their supportThat's perhaps why Sánchez is confident he can hold out. The alternative, without a doubt, would be worse.