Andalusia tests Moreno Bonilla's moderate path
BarcelonaAndalusia is celebrating its thirteenth regional elections this Sunday, a series that began in 1982 and in which a solid socialist hegemony was maintained until 2018, when Juanma Moreno Bonilla took over the Junta with the support of Ciutadans and Vox. In this last decade, Moreno Bonilla has built his own profile, different from the national PP and especially different from the Madrid PP, based on moderation, good manners, and unadulterated Andalusianism. In reality, it is a formula that recalls Pujol's Convergència, although without questioning the Spanish national project, and which is also practiced, for example, by the Galician PP and, to a lesser extent, the Balearic PP.
The success of Moreno's bet is based on dual voting, that is, a percentage of traditionally socialist voters opt for the PP in regional elections because they consider that the current president is a good manager and defends Andalusian interests before Madrid better than a socialist would. This is a phenomenon that would be unthinkable in Ayuso's Madrid. The truth is, however, that Moreno Bonilla has had important crises during his term, the most serious of which is that of breast cancer screenings, and he could begin to suffer some wear and tear. Polls indicate that the PP's absolute majority is hanging by a thread, and that everything will depend on the effects of the D'Hondt law in a territory with eight constituencies and, therefore, with many seats up for grabs until the last hour.
The elections will gauge the strength of the Moreno path and also the extent of the far-right growth wave. Vox already showed signs of having peaked in Castilla y León, where it only gained one seat, but if it grows in Andalusia it could threaten the PP's absolute majority and force Moreno into tough negotiations. Having to negotiate with Vox would be a disaster for Moreno Bonilla, whose political discourse is based on seeking centrism and attacking the far-right. It would also be bad news for Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who would see one of his main assets lose its majority and, consequently, its political autonomy.
In the left-wing camp, the only objective is to avoid collapse. María Jesús Montero has been a pillar of Pedro Sánchez's governments for eight years, but Andalusians, despite her past as a regional minister, see her as a parachutist from Madrid. The PSOE faces the risk of worsening the results from four years ago, which were already dire. A scenario where Montero collapses and Moreno maintains an absolute majority would be a very strong blow to Sánchez's aspirations, who has maximally committed himself to a campaign in which a lot is at stake.
Ultimately, however, Sunday's results will have to be interpreted in an internal Andalusian context. That there has been a shift to the right is undeniable, but there has also been an increase in Andalusian consciousness and the need to establish a distinct profile in a highly polarized Spain. This is why the Moreno path is an amendment to both sanchismo and ayusismo.
