Andalusia tests Moreno Bonilla's moderate path
BarcelonaAndalusia is celebrating its thirteenth regional elections this Sunday, a series that began in 1982 and in which a solid socialist hegemony was maintained until Juanma Moreno Bonilla acceded to the Junta in 2018 hand in hand with Ciudadanos and Vox. In this last decade, Moreno Bonilla has built his own profile, different from the state PP, and especially different from the Madrid PP, based on moderation, good manners, and undisguised Andalusianism. In reality, it is a formula that recalls Pujol's Convergència, albeit without questioning the Spanish national project, and which is also practiced, for example, by the Galician PP and, to a lesser extent, the Balearic PP.
The success of Moreno's bet is based on the dual vote, that is, a percentage of traditionally socialist voters opt for the PP in the regional elections because they consider that the current president is a good manager and defends Andalusian interests before Madrid better than a socialist would. This is a phenomenon that would be unthinkable in Ayuso's Madrid. The truth is, however, that Moreno Bonilla has had important crises during the legislature, the most serious of which is that of breast cancer screenings, and he could begin to suffer some wear and tear. The polls indicate that the PP's absolute majority hangs by a thread, and that everything will depend on the effects of the D'Hondt law in a territory with eight constituencies and, therefore, with many seats up for grabs until the last hour.
The elections will calibrate the strength of the Moreno path and also the scope of the far-right growth wave. Vox already showed signs of having hit a ceiling in Castilla y León, where it only gained one seat, but if it grows in Andalusia, it could threaten the PP's absolute majority and force Moreno into tough negotiations. Having to negotiate with Vox would be a disaster for Moreno Bonilla, who bases his political discourse on seeking centrality and attacking the far-right. It would also be bad news for Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who would see one of his main assets lose its majority and, consequently, political autonomy.
In the left-wing camp, the only objective is to avoid collapse. María Jesús Montero has been a pillar of Pedro Sánchez's governments for eight years, but Andalusians, despite her past as a regional minister, see her as a parachutist from Madrid. The PSOE faces the risk of worsening the results from four years ago, which were already dire. A scenario where Montero collapses and Moreno maintains an absolute majority would be a very strong blow to Sánchez's aspirations, who has maximally involved himself in a campaign where much is at stake.
Ultimately, however, this Sunday's results must be interpreted in an internal Andalusian context. That there has been a shift to the right is undeniable, but there has also been an increase in Andalusian consciousness and the need to establish a distinct profile in a highly polarized Spain. That is why the Moreno path is both an amendment to sanchismo and to ayusismo.