The Spanish electricity system is losing power and becoming more congested.

BarcelonaThe electricity system has lost nearly 2.8 gigawatts (GW) of available capacity in just two months – between October and November 2025 – leaving much of the country without the technical capacity for new projects, according to an analysis by Forum Industria y Energía (FIE) and Opina 360 from the electricity sector, which puts the saturation level at 85.7%. Specifically, the study, using data from December 1st, has expanded its scope to include 6,108 substations belonging to the 29 largest distributors in the country, which account for 97% of supply points. According to the data, the estimated saturation rate has risen from 82.4% to 85.7%, meaning that 5,235 substations no longer have available capacity. In terms of power, the drop is also significant, falling from over 10 GW available in October to 7,363.2 MW, a loss of approximately 2.8 GW of available capacity in two months. This confirms that the demand for electrification and new industrial projects is consuming capacity. Thus, the Industry and Energy Forum and Opina 360 point to a scenario of increasing stress on grid access, where the margin for maneuver is narrowing and connection capacity is becoming an increasingly decisive factor for industrial planning.

Saturation concentrated in the Basque Country, Navarre and La Rioja

By region, the substation capacity map confirms an increasingly marked pattern of structural saturation in large areas of Spain, especially in the north and central parts of the peninsula. The Basque Country remains the autonomous community with the highest saturation level, reaching 99.8%, followed closely by Navarre and La Rioja, both with 99.2%. The study considers that this territorial map not only reflects a saturation problem, "but also a progressive shift of industrial opportunity towards very specific locations where there is still room for electricity demand." In terms of available megawatts, Galicia leads the regional ranking with 1,720.8 MW, followed by Catalonia (1,024 MW) and Andalusia (870.5 MW). The study also indicates that saturation is progressing at a faster rate than any replacement, even in regions that until now acted as buffers. Thus, communities such as Asturias (which rose from 26.1% to 36.3%), the Balearic Islands (from 38.6% to 50%), the Canary Islands (from 32.6% to 60.9%), and Castilla-La Mancha (from 85.3% to 93.4%) registered significant increases in their saturation levels. Similarly, all communities have lost available capacity, except for Extremadura and Galicia, which registered two modest increases. The largest absolute losses are concentrated in Andalusia (-680.9 MW), Madrid (-455.1 MW), and the Valencian Community (-326.5 MW). Among the exceptions, Galicia maintains the largest absolute margin with 1,720.8 MW, followed by Catalonia (1,024 MW) and Andalusia (870.5 MW), although in these cases internal availability is not homogeneous and their effective capacity may be limited by technical and locational factors.