Producers assume that the price of pork will fall, but they suspect it will not be a catastrophic crisis.

LleidaThe Catalan and Spanish pork sector (farmers, integrating companies, business associations, and slaughterhouses) claims to be well-prepared for the arrival of African swine fever (ASF). In fact, many predicted that the epidemic would reach Spain sooner or later. In any case, there doesn't seem to be any panic. Reference prices for pork at Mercolleida have fallen between 10 cents and 5 euros following the declaration of the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak detected in Catalonia, the Lleida market reported on Monday. The price boards for fattening pigs, sows, and piglets met in Mercolleida in an extraordinary session to analyze the market situation after the ASF cases.

Assuming that zero risk doesn't exist, the production sector maintains that the chances of The risk of the virus penetrating a pig farm is minimal due to the high levels of biosecurity available.“We have one of the most rigorous health surveillance and control systems in Europe. Farms in Catalonia have been operating for years under strict biosecurity protocols, which have now been further reinforced,” says Alberto Herranz, general manager of the Interprofessional Agri-food Organization for White-Coat Pigs (INTERPORC). “Our biosecurity model is one of the most rigorous in the world, allowing us to act quickly and effectively in the face of any risk,” Herranz adds.

Access control, disinfection of vehicles and people, perimeter fences, sanitary arches and fords, isolated loading and unloading docks, safe removal of dead animals, quarantine systems... Farmers try to minimize unnecessary visits once they have complied with the corresponding biosecurity measures. Not even external maintenance personnel (electricians, sheet metal workers, bricklayers, IT specialists, etc.) are allowed to enter with their own tools. The chances of the virus entering a farm are extremely low. "The livestock sector has been incorporating animal health as part of its production system for years," warns Ricard Parés, director of the Catalan Association of Pig Producers (Porcat).

Biosecurity seems guaranteed. What doesn't seem guaranteed is the price of meat. Producers assume that prices will fluctuate downwards repeatedly from now on for months (or perhaps years).

The pork sector has just come off a long, very good period of consistent profits. In mid-2023, the peak was reached with a price exceeding two euros per kilo of live pig, a price that is currently around 1.3 euros (last January it was 1.5). Everything points to Mercolleida, the benchmark market for the national market, starting to set substantially lower prices from now on. "These kinds of fluctuations are common in our sector, and therefore, we are facing entirely unfamiliar territory," warns Parés. "The situation isn't good, but we'll know how to weather it," concludes the director of Porcat.

"We are a sector that is very used to this, and we have to acknowledge that we've come from some very profitable years," insists Eduard Cau, president of Gestión Agroganadera de Ponent, a cooperative in Juneda that includes 160 livestock farmers from the Les Garrigues and Pla d'Ur regions. "All of this is part of normality, a risk that we already knew existed and that has ultimately affected us," concludes Cau.

Satisfaction with the administration

What most producers consulted by ARA also agree on is that there is a high degree of satisfaction with the current government policy regarding African swine fever (ASF). Firstly, the sector greatly appreciates the speed with which the government acted in response to the Collserola outbreak, both in terms of media coverage and information dissemination. Furthermore, livestock farmers acknowledge the government's wise decision to reach a regionalization agreement with the Chinese government just a few weeks ago, which has reduced China's blockade of producers in the province of Barcelona. "It is still unfair for producers like those in Osona, who are located kilometers away from the infected wild boars, but the losses have been substantially minimized thanks to the regionalization agreement," stated sources within the sector who wished to remain anonymous. These same sources noted that the outbreak that affected Germany in September 2020 reduced pig production by 30% due to the lack of an agreement like the one the government reached in early November.

In any case, producers point out that exports are mostly within the European Union. "Our main destination remains Central Europe, and we are still maintaining that at the moment," says Parés, "although the blockade with third countries will eventually saturate the European market."

"Now it's up to the administration to address this outbreak, control it as much as possible, and eradicate it quickly," urges Ricard Parés. It could take a few months; some producers predict a year, and the most pessimistic say it could take up to three. While this is happening, the sector is asking for trust. "Trust in a safe, professional, and committed production model, and collaboration to continue protecting an animal health system that is a global benchmark," asserts Alberto Herranz.