Moderate optimism at the Chamber of Commerce: the Catalan economy is growing thanks to investment and productivity.

BarcelonaThe Barcelona Chamber of Commerce revised upwards its growth forecasts for the Catalan economy this year on Tuesday. The business institution believes that economic activity will rise in 2025 thanks to an improvement in household consumption and business investment, something that is also being reflected in the rise in productivity, one of the historically unresolved issues for the Catalan productive sector. Therefore, the president of the Chamber, Josep Santacreu, sent a message of "optimism" but with "caution."

Specifically, the Chamber has increased by three-tenths, to 2.9%, the annual growth rate it expects for the Catalan economy this year, leaving that of 2026 unchanged at 2.4%. The upward revision comes shortly after the Generalitat also revised its forecasts, based on studies by the chamber, Joan Ramon Rovira, who attributed this to the publication of new data at the Spanish and global level in the period between the two revisions.

Likewise, most international institutions also point out that Spain as a whole will also have good economic results. In fact, over the last three years, both Catalonia and the Spanish state have led growth among Europe's major economies. "The situation is encouraging; this is very positive news in every sense," said Rovira at the presentation of the new forecasts. In this sense, the projected growth rates, below 3%, are lower than those of recent years, when they hovered around 4% and were "absolutely unsustainable" for a developed economy like Catalonia's (wealthier countries tend to have lower growth rates).

However, Rovira clarified that there are "risks related to the evolution of the global economy." In this regard, the economist asserted that the "impact of the tariffs" imposed by the United States on the European Union has not yet reached most sectors. Rovira insisted that Catalonia has a fairly small direct exposure to the US (less than 5% of Catalan exports go to the US market), but has a very high exposure to countries that do have significant trade with the United States, especially Germany, France, and Italy.

Possible change of pattern

However, beyond the specific figures, the Chamber's optimism stems primarily from the change in the drivers of growth: private consumption and business investment in productive factors "are taking over" from exports and public spending (partly due to European funds), which had been the other two pillars of growth since the end of the pandemic.

These increases in investment and consumption lead the economy into a "positive spiral," according to Rovira, in which these two factors increase business profits, allowing for improved investment and, at the same time, increasing salaries and the hiring of more labor, which increases consumption.

Investment, both productive and in construction, were two "worrying" elements until now, in the opinion of the Chamber, which the data suggests are improving. In the first case, "it clearly rebounded in 2024, also per worker," while in the second it is also growing, but at a pace that is too slow "to solve one of the main problems" facing society today, which is access to housing, Rovira commented.

The increase in investment is one of the "factors explaining the evolution of labor productivity," added the head of studies at the Chamber. In fact, this is the change that the chamber has highlighted most in its report. Productivity—the measure of the efficiency of a worker, a company, or a region in producing goods or services—is one of the factors that has most recently concerned Catalan economists, as it has traditionally been lower than in the rest of Europe, which explains the higher levels of well-being than in other countries on the continent. Thus, productivity per worker recovered to pre-pandemic levels in Catalonia in 2024 (not yet in Spain), while, since the end of 2022, productivity per hour worked has skyrocketed.

Despite the positive performance of productivity, the Chamber has sounded the alarm about the increase in sick leave. Rovira emphasized that Catalonia and Spain have the highest rates of unworked working hours in Europe, which have also increased sharply since the end of COVID-19, both due to medical leave and other types of leave (personal matters, maternity leave, moving, weddings, etc.). However, the economist explained that there is currently insufficient data to explain why absenteeism is increasing.