Iran begins maneuvers to close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic point for international trade

The US and Israeli attacks on Iran have created a new landscape of uncertainty for global energy markets. In retaliation for the bombings, the Middle Eastern country has begun maneuvers to close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic international waterway that could trigger a major global economic earthquake. According to Reuters, ships in the Persian Gulf are receiving high-frequency radio transmissions from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard warning that they will not be allowed to pass through the strait. For now, according to the UK Maritime Trade Organization (UKMTO), traffic remains open. The organization, which monitors commercial activity at sea, points out that radio frequency messages "are not legally binding and do not constitute any navigational restriction under international law." Countries in conflict can unilaterally declare maritime exclusion zones to reduce risks, but this mechanism "is not intended to impede the navigation of goods or neutrality, and ships are still free to navigate in international waters," it clarifies.

The consequences of closing the strait

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic waterway for the movement of goods—primarily energy products—between the Middle East and Europe, China and the US, and connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. This passage has a maximum width of 96 kilometers and a minimum of 33, with Iran to the north and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman to the south. Between a quarter and a fifth of the world's oil, some 20 million barrels per day, passes through it. But its closure would not only impact crude oil: liquefied natural gas (LNG) would also be affected. Qatar, the world's leading exporter, transports almost all of its production through this strait.

According to OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the Middle Eastern country has the world's third-largest crude oil reserves, and Tehran exports more than three million barrels of oil every day. In fact, anticipating an imminent attack on Iran, Brent crude prices closed higher on Friday, reaching $73 per barrel, well above the $66 target price. Iran's parliament already approved closing the strait in June 2025; at that time, volatility gripped international markets and the price of Brent surpassed $80, with a consequent surge in inflation. Indeed, it should be noted that a rise in energy prices inevitably leads to increased inflation; an undesirable situation in Europe, at a time when central banks and governments are striving to implement policies to control it.

In light of the situation, José Enrique Vázquez, president of Pimec's energy commission, told ARA that it is most likely that "oil and natural gas prices will rise significantly during the days the conflict lasts, but then they will moderate, because energy dependence is currently focused on gas and oil," he explained. "In the energy sector, we have a saying that, in the case of oil, prices rise like a rocket but fall like a glider, little by little," he said. The expert also noted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a "much broader impact, not only on oil, but also on the traffic of other goods."

"The final thought is that we need greater energy independence from fossil fuels, and it's in moments like these that this becomes clearest," Vázquez points out. "We can't depend on fossil fuels—oil and natural gas—that we don't have, and countries that are part of the US are highly unstable; in Trump's time, you never know," he concludes. The evolution of the conflict over the rest of the weekend will be crucial, as will the opening of the stock markets on Monday morning.