Assumptions

Treasury opens to negotiate a differentiated deficit target with the autonomous communities

Inform the councillors that initially it will be 0.1% for the autonomies, while it will allow them to spend 4% more resources

MadridLa Moncloa is determined to present the budgets for 2027 despite not having support in the Congress of Deputies. And, for this reason, it has already begun to take the necessary steps to bring the accounts to the Spanish chamber this autumn. The Minister of Finance, Arcadi España, has met with all the Finance ministers this Monday in the autonomous communities and has communicated the spending limits that the State government foresees for the autonomous and municipal governments for next year. According to sources from the Ministry of Finance, while the meeting is still underway, Arcadi España has informed the autonomies that they will have the possibility to spend up to 4% more, this being the new spending rule for all administrations, although it maintains the deficit margin for autonomous administrations of 0.1%.

A figure that the Finance counselors have already warned at the entrance of the meeting, which is held at the ministry in Madrid, that it is insufficient, because the autonomies finance the welfare state. In this regard, according to sources from the Ministry of Finance, Minister Arcadi España has opened up to "debate and establish differentiated deficit objectives, taking into account the differentiated situation of each one". In fact, this is one of the issues that the president of Esquerra, Oriol Junqueras, has demanded in a press conference this Monday from Catalonia, arguing that if the European Union differentiates deficit objectives by territories, the Spanish state can also do so.

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More spending possibility

The Spanish government is asking to make use of the data communicated to the autonomous communities. The Treasury notes that the income that the State's general administration will transfer to the communities' governments will increase by up to 8% due to the increase in collection. "The communities will receive the largest amount of resources in their history," say Treasury sources, who add that it could be even greater if the new financing model agreed upon by the Spanish government with Esquerra is approved. However, the Treasury did not want to discuss the financing system this Monday. The Minister of Economy, Alícia Romero, supported Arcadi España's strategy upon entering the meeting: "Today the topic on the table is another: it is to approve the budgetary stability objectives, and there will be time to talk about the financing model," she said, as the ministry plans to hold a specific meeting at the end of this July to address the financing system.

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It should be taken into account that 2027 is an election year for a good part of the autonomies and municipalities, as elections are to be held on May 23rd. This implies that, in an election year, the Spanish government makes a point of giving more resources to the autonomies, while the councilors of the autonomous governments, mostly from the PP, attack the Treasury because they believe it only benefits Catalonia. "This government wants to subject us to a tax impossible to comply with," said Elena Manzano, the economic head of Extremadura. While Carolina España, from Andalusia, directly labeled the meeting a "farce" because, she said, the state budgets will not be approved. A very different assessment from that of the head of Asturias, governed by the socialists, Guillermo Peláez, who celebrated the Spanish government's determination to present the 2027 budgets.

In fact, Moncloa's intention is to approve the spending ceiling this Tuesday in a cabinet meeting and also the budgetary stability objectives to take them to a vote in Congress this very July. With what perspective? Junts has already said it would vote against it because it considers that more deficit margin should be left to the autonomous communities and town councils, who are obliged to have a deficit of 0: Junts sources believe that the general administration of the State keeps the largest spending margin –1.5% of the total 1.8% set by Brussels, since 0.2% goes to Social Security– when it does not have charge of the majority of welfare state services. A threat that the Treasury responds to in the following way: the 0.1% given to the communities implies being able to spend more than 5,849 million euros without having to balance the books; if this is not approved in the Spanish chamber, they warn, they will have to comply with a deficit of 0.

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The PP does not believe it

In Génova they do not believe the Spanish government's attempt to move forward with a budget. PP spokesperson Borja Sémper opined that it is a "trick" because they are "unfeasible". Sémper insisted that the popular party "will not participate in this discursive pantomime". According to the popular party, these accounts will only serve for Sánchez to have an excuse to call elections once Congress rejects them —reports Andrea Zamorano. On the other hand, Esquerra Unida trusts that Pedro Sánchez will roll up his sleeves so that the future general budgets receive the green light. “It would be frivolous to present budgets knowing they will not be approved, because it would be a fraud to Spanish society,” argued Antonio Maíllo, federal coordinator of the party.

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He alleges that new public accounts cannot be pushed forward knowing that the debate “will be for nothing” and “will have no social consequences”. The four parties around Sumar are committed to the budgets being of “such magnitude and so positive” that opposing them would mean a high “wear and tear” — reports Martí Odriozola.

Illa and Junqueras pressure Junts on the FLA and the new financing model

As long as the Spanish legislature is alive, the PSC and ERC maintain their pressure on Junts for them to validate the forgiveness of part of the debt from the autonomous liquidity fund (FLA) and one of their main investiture agreements: the new regional financing model. This Monday, the President of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, did so, and the leader of ERC, Oriol Junqueras, also joined in. "I hope all parties are up to the situation," Illa said in an interview with RAC1. In fact, he assured that he maintains "open channels of dialogue" with Junts, but did not want to reveal if he had spoken with former president Carles Puigdemont.For his part, the leader of ERC, Oriol Junqueras, also asked Junts for "maximum responsibility." "Catalonia cannot afford to throw away the income that will derive from the new financing model," he warned at a press conference, after recalling that the Principality would receive 4.7 billion euros. "No one has the right to harm the interests of families, businesses, and workers to satisfy their party interests," he added.Regarding the transfer of IRPF collection, Junqueras assured that ERC maintains its plan to demand it again through amendments to the financing law. However, if this norm ends up failing, the Republican leader assured that they do not renounce "any path" to try to wrest this competence from the State. That is, he has not closed the door to presenting a bill again on their own, as they did last year.