"Global prospects are deteriorating further," warns the OECD

ParisUS President Donald Trump's trade policy is already having a direct impact on the global economy. "The global outlook is deteriorating further," the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned in its semi-annual report on Tuesday.think tankof the most advanced economies). In a "difficult and uncertain" context due to the US tariff war, the Paris-based organization has slightly revised down Spanish GDP growth for this year to 2.4%, two-tenths less than expected at the beginning of the year and almost a point less than last year's growth (3.2%).

Despite the reduction, the impact of tariffs on the Spanish economy will be limited. According to OECD forecasts, the Spanish GDP will grow the most this year of the major economies in the eurozone. While the Spanish economy will increase its activity by 2.4% in 2025, German GDP will only grow by 0.4%, that of France and Italy by 0.6%, and that of the United Kingdom by 1.3%. The OECD's forecasts are slightly less optimistic than those of the Spanish government and the European Commission, which estimate that Spanish GDP will grow by 2.6% this year.

"In an international context marked by the downward revision of global economic forecasts due to uncertainty and the impact of the new international trade environment, Spain will continue to lead growth among the major European economies," emphasize sources from the Spanish government. For 2026, the forecast is not as optimistic. The OECD foresees a clear deceleration in Spanish GDP growth, which will increase by 1.9%, two-tenths less than expected in the last report.

Global Impact

The international organization's forecasts make it clear that the consequences of the imposition of new tariffs by the United States have a global impact. The OECD has revised global GDP growth downwards for this year to 2.9%, four-tenths of a percentage point lower than expected before Donald Trump took office. "This downgrade in the economic forecast will be felt around the world, with hardly any exception. The slowdown in economic expansion and the reduction in trade will harm household incomes and slow job growth," warns the OECD.

"The global economy has left behind a period of resilient growth and declining inflation and is entering a more uncertain path," summarized OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann.

US slowdown

Despite President Trump's triumphant rhetoric, the US economy will be hit hard by his own trade policy. The US economy will grow by 2.8% in 2024.

The countries that will be hit hardest by tariffs are the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Criticism of protectionism

The OECD warns that the trade war could also increase inflation, although its effect could be "partly" offset by lower commodity prices. In any case, the Paris-based organization is highly critical of Donald Trump's trade policy and fears that the situation will worsen in the coming months. "Risks have also increased significantly. There are fears that protectionism and trade policy uncertainty will further increase and that new trade barriers will be established," the OECD states.

To avoid further economic uncertainty, the organization calls on governments to sign trade agreements with the United States—which it does not explicitly name—"that will ease trade tensions and reduce tariffs and other obstacles." The OECD asserts that this is "by far the most important priority" for governments at this time.