Curbing speculation: Will fewer large landlords improve the housing situation?

BarcelonaThe legal endorsement by a group of experts of the ban on speculative housing purchases unblocked the 2026 budget agreement between the Catalan government and the Comuns party last week. The measure aims to make housing more accessible by regulating demand, based on the premise that limiting purchases to companies and large property owners will reduce competition. The formula for implementing it is a reform of the urban planning law This would leave the decision to limit the uses to which a buyer or someone who has just inherited an apartment can be put in the hands of local councils. Now, the PSC and Comuns parties will have to seek parliamentary alliances to pass it. But, beyond the legal doubts surrounding the law, the debate arises as to whether it will manage to influence the functioning of the market in favor of small property owners or, directly, those who are not yet owners.

If the market has fewer large competitors, will this lower apartment prices?

The experts consulted by ARA disagree on the impact that excluding companies and large landlords from the market—they will only be able to buy entire buildings for rental purposes, or, in the case of individuals, for second homes—could have on housing prices. "The impact on prices will be small or negligible, and I don't think it will be very different depending on whether or not these measures are approved. Price moderation will come more from the exhaustion of inertia than from the purchasing power of buyers," explains Josep Reyner, president of the Catalan economic commission of the Col·legi d'Economistes (College of Economists). Ramon Bastida, director of the Chair of Decent and Sustainable Housing at UPF-BSM, is slightly more optimistic, seeing an opening for new players to enter the market. The expert believes that the ban on purchases by large owners or corporations could help prevent prices from rising, but agrees that the situation shouldn't be reversed, either for buying or renting. "It may have an impact, but it may be more of a media impact than a real one," reasons the professor, who also teaches in the Department of Economics and Business at UPF. In fact, Catalan notaries denied this with figures this week that speculative purchases are a relevant phenomenon in the volume of home sales transactions.

Does fewer large property owners mean less rehabilitation?

One of the other big unknowns is how the measure would affect the rehabilitation operations of a park where, according to 2023 data, one in three homes is emptyCompanies and large property owners are, by their very nature, those with the greatest financial resources to undertake major renovations of properties that, in their current state, cannot be put on the market. According to experts consulted, a side effect of the law could be a slowdown in renovations if the ban is not accompanied by aid for other sectors so they too can bear the expense. In response, the Comuns party demanded that the Catalan government roll up its sleeves and implement public renovation policies so they don't depend "on vulture funds."

Urban planner Manuel Larrosa warns about the effects that limits on the returns that can be obtained from buying and selling properties could have on construction. "We may find that vulture funds are the most interested in building. The profitability they guarantee is high, but we are creating a protected market through protectionism," he emphasizes. In any case, he sees the implementation of this ban as "very complicated." "Ideally, we should offer projects on the market that include public land, but aren't built solely by the public sector," he adds.

What happens if each municipality chooses what to do?

But even if it goes ahead, the agreed-upon reform will not automatically prohibit any purchases for anyone. Each municipality will be able to decide whether to introduce this veto in high-demand areas, and therefore, the final push will depend on the will of each local council. This could create discrepancies between neighboring territories, adding another "complex and legally difficult" component to the regulation, Bastida points out. What Barcelona does will also be key. which is experiencing the largest loss of rental properties and has already seen a year of price increasesDespite the limits imposed by the housing law. For Reyner, if limiting speculative purchases can be useful anywhere, it's in the Catalan capital, with areas where home ownership is highly concentrated, such as Ciutat Vella or Gràcia.

Is it enough?

The three experts' diagnosis is unanimous: limiting the concentration of housing in the hands of a few is not enough to improve access to housing, which stems from a "structural" problem of supply shortage, exacerbated by the time it takes to bring a property to market between planning and handing over the keys. Larrosa, for example, proposes concentrating aid on land to make construction more affordable and prevent developers from going into debt, at a time when there is a lot of movement in the resale property market.

"The truly effective measures would be those aimed at putting more housing on the market, either by mobilizing vacant or non-residential properties, or by activating existing development-ready land through municipal development," notes Reyner, who supports incentivizing small landlords to put their apartments on the rental market without "fear." He also proposes that the public sector offer incentives to developers to build social housing or affordable rental properties. "Limiting speculative purchases can help, but what needs to be done is to increase supply after several years in which construction hasn't kept pace with population growth," Bastida summarizes.