14% less GDP in 2050: the cost of climate change for Barcelona

BarcelonaBarcelona, ​​​​and by extension Catalonia, could lose 14% of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050 due to climate change. This is according to a study by the AXA Foundation presented this Tuesday at the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, which also indicates that the main risks linked to the climate crisis for the city of Barcelona are extreme heat, water stress, and flooding.

This study highlights the need to take preventative measures to reduce the impact of climate change. In fact, insurers like AXA itself are increasingly noticing climate change in their business, with more and new claims related to floods or droughts, among others. Specifically, the document maintains that extreme heat is the greatest risk due to the impact it has on the tourism sector in Barcelona, ​​​​because when the city experiences temperatures above 30 degrees, tourists may seek more temperate areas to travel. But this isn't the only risk impacting the economy: flooding, such as that caused by hurricanes, will also increasingly affect the city.

In fact, the study indicates that if the current trend of greenhouse gas emissions continues and corrective measures are not taken, Barcelona could be "the city in Europe with the most deaths related to extreme heat by 2100," some 250,000 in 2017, or 3,300 per year in 2018.

The analysis, prepared by Axa Climate (a subsidiary of the Axa group dedicated to climate change), indicates that the average temperature in the city of Barcelona could increase by 3.5 degrees by 2050. Consequently, by 2100, the Catalan capital will experience a "drastic increase" in nighttime heat, from 38 to 112 nights per year. It will be hotter not only at night, but also during the day, going from an average of 22 days per year in which temperatures will exceed 30 degrees to around 80 days per year. And the number of days in which temperatures will exceed 33 degrees will increase from 3 per year to 34 by 2100.

Claudia Ylla, the flood risk management expert at AXA Climate who presented the study, stated that the increase in temperature between now and 2030 will affect outdoor work, such as construction.

Torrential rains

The study also states that torrential rains associated with floods are the "main risk" of flooding in the city of Barcelona. According to the study, around 40% of the inhabitants of central Barcelona could be exposed to flooding by 2050.

The study estimates that some 608,400 people could be affected in some way by flooding, with damage to homes, disruption to transportation networks, and so on.

At the presentation, the general director of the Axa Foundation, Josep Alfonso Caro, stated that the debate is no longer over whether the effects of climate change are real or not, but rather the key is to understand "how far they can go" the sum of all the effects. The secretary general of the Department of Territory of the Generalitat, Jordi Terrades, warned that, "depending on what we do," climate change could have a greater or lesser impact on the GDP of Catalonia and the city of Barcelona. Josep Santacreu, president of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, has called for planning and investments to address the effects of climate change.