A new real estate crisis?

The real estate crisis that erupted nearly two decades ago has remained etched in the collective memory. The impact was profound, persistent, and uneven, and forced measures to be taken to prevent it from happening again. For this reason, the sharp rise in housing prices fuels the fear that the lesson has not been fully learned. According to data published this week by the INE, in Catalonia, housing prices continue to rise at a rate of 10.1% annually. This is a rate slightly lower than the 11.7% recorded last year, but still very high. The concern, therefore, is justified.

For years now, housing prices have been growing strongly. After remaining relatively stable during the years following the financial crisis, they began a sustained climb after the pandemic. In nominal terms, it is already above the maximum reached before the crisis, specifically 16.4% according to the latest estimates from the INE. However, this indicator must be put into context: since then, the CPI has increased by nearly 45% and wages by between 50% and 60%, depending on the indicator used.

Another relevant element for assessing the current situation is the territorial extent of the tensions in the housing market. Initially, price pressures were concentrated in urban and tourist areas, but over time they have spread. In Catalonia, in 2022, nearly 80% of municipalities recorded increases of less than 5%. In 2025, however, half of the municipalities showed increases of more than 10%. The latest data indicate that this growth rate has already spread to nearly 75% of municipalities.

The evolution of prices points, effectively, to a significant imbalance between supply and demand. But the nature of current tensions is very different from that which led to the crisis two decades ago. This cycle is driven by high and solid demand, favored by population growth, driven by intense migratory flows; by the growth of economic activity and, especially, employment; and by foreign demand that continues to grow hand in hand with tourism. And all this is contrasted by a supply that struggles to grow, the differential factor from the previous cycle. In Catalonia, since 2021, nearly 220,000 households have been created. In contrast, in this same period, only about 70,000 new homes have been built. The result is evident: robust demand and insufficient supply. It is this persistent imbalance that fundamentally explains the current tensions on prices.

The rental market does not escape this reality either. According to the latest data, prices are moderating, partly thanks to the limits introduced in strained areas. According to the indicator based on deposits held at Incasòl, the cost of new rentals is growing below 1% in Catalonia, in the metropolitan area, and in Barcelona, after some years in which the increase approached 8%. But this moderation has an important trade-off: supply is also shrinking. The number of signed contracts is more than 40% below the levels recorded in 2021.

For housing access conditions to improve, both for purchase and rental, it is necessary to reduce the imbalance between demand that is growing strongly and supply that cannot keep pace. Without a sustained increase in the residential stock, especially in the most strained markets, pressure on prices will hardly moderate. We are not facing a real estate crisis like the one from two decades ago, but we are facing a growing problem of access to housing that threatens to become structural.