Sánchez: silence in Catalonia, elections are coming in Andalusia

The week is off to a bad start for the government and for all of us who believe that governing a country with the 2023 budget is not serious. Everything has come to a head this weekend. We had reached Friday with the agreement between the Government and the Commons to approve the budgetsAll that remained was the arithmetically indispensable "yes" from Esquerra, and on Friday morning, President Illa made what is now called "a gesture" to Esquerra: he stated his commitment to one of Esquerra's conditions: that the Generalitat collect 100% of the personal income tax. And he put it this way:

At almost the same time, Pedro Sánchez and Oriol Junqueras are meeting in secret. Sánchez tells Junqueras that he can't approve the collection of 100% of the personal income tax right now because the Vice President and Minister of Finance, Montero, will have elections in Andalusia no later than June, and that until then it's best not to touch this issue, as the People's Party (PP) will use it to further undermine him. The Socialist Party's prospects in Andalusia are already bad without agreements with the separatists, but with agreements they are even worse, of course.

So, it's coming out on Saturday. Oriol Junqueras says that President Illa can start putting papers on the budgets now.:

And so here we are, without the transfer of tax revenue and, for the time being, without a budget in Catalonia. And all because the PSOE doesn't want any more political fallout, as it affects the electoral cycle.

We've spoken with Esquerra and the Catalan government. Esquerra is angry with Isla because he made that public commitment regarding income tax revenue, and then "five minutes later," Pedro Sánchez tells Junqueras no, because Montero said no way. And Isla remains silent. So the PSC is backing down to avoid putting Sánchez in trouble, and if anything, the problem falls on the PSC, which won't be able to pass the budget.

For their part, Illa's government doesn't see it as so dramatic and says it's all a matter of timing. They recall that it seemed a financing agreement wouldn't be reached, precisely because of Montero, who would never budge, but then it was finally reached, and they found the right moment to explain it, just as happened with the creation of the joint State-Generalitat commuter rail company. And they say the same thing will happen with the personal income tax revenue, that Esquerra knows this and is taking advantage of it. It's a problem of timing, and there's no other option but to be confident; the budget is urgent now, while they still have time to resolve the personal income tax issue.

Look, it's a blow for Isla, that you come out saying you're in favor of the agreement and then Sánchez, for electoral expediency in Andalusia, tells you no now, when he knows you could be approving a budget with Esquerra, and now, who knows? Because Illa knows that if he doesn't approve the 2026 budget, he won't approve any budget at all, because in 2027 there are municipal and Spanish elections and the parties won't be focused on reaching agreements but on highlighting their differences. Perhaps when Illa said he knew how to do it, he meant he knew when to do it: in June, after the Andalusian elections.

How will this end? I think both sides are waiting to see who can hold out longer. For now, Illa won't upset Sánchez, and Esquerra won't approve the budget. Is there a solution? Yes, Illa and Junqueras should announce a future agreement, without the PSOE denying it, because Esquerra needs a way to ensure that Catalonia will have one. Without this, there will be no budget.

Good morning.