Antoni Bassas' analysis: "Together we decide how far the split with the PSOE will go."

As if it were a snowball, thenotice from Míriam Nogueras to Pedro SánchezThe meeting, held last Tuesday in Congress, has gradually become a meeting of the Junts executive committee, next Monday in Perpignan, and if the decision is to break with the PSOE, submit it to a consultation with the membership. God grant. And since everything is likely to get worse, ERC has also raised its hand.

Remember the sequence of what we've told you these days: Salvador Illa's government saw an agreement with Spanish Vice President Montero on financing as close or very close. Montero drops the concept of ordinality. We commented here that a number isn't a system, that we already know the tricks. Well, Junqueras confirms this by saying that "we are far behind in terms of financing."And that a number is not a financing model.

It is in this context that Junts is setting in motion the machinery to break away from the PSOE with this meeting of the party's executive committee in Perpignan and, if it decides to break away, to submit it to a vote of the membership. So the time has come to find out what he meant. Puigdemont when he said in August that this fall things would happen that have never happened before.

How did we get here? Let's see, in 15 days, on November 9th, it will be two years since the POSE-Junts agreements in Brussels. Of those agreements, only the amnesty has been fulfilled, and not entirely: specifically, Puigdemont hasn't received it. And next week it will be eight years since Puigdemont went into exile. And the rest of the pacts haven't been implemented either. The advance payment scheme hasn't worked, as Junts leaders are now admitting. Sánchez argues in his own defense that not everything depends on him, and it's true that the PSOE and Junts knew this when they signed the agreements, but Junts believes Sánchez hasn't made enough of an effort to ensure they are implemented.

And that's the problem. Look at the situation of Junts: its leader is in exile. It's the leading opposition party in the Catalan Parliament, aside from the investiture agreed upon by the PSC, Esquerra, and Comuns, and its response to President Isla's wife, Albert Batet, is unlikely to be the candidate for the presidency of the Generalitat. So, what, apart from municipal power, is Junts' only (and very important) strength? The seven deputies in Madrid. As they say in Catalan politics: you're worth what your parliamentary group is worth in Madrid. Junts's is worth a lot because it made Sánchez president. But it hasn't reaped the benefits. Even worse, Junts is stagnating or falling in the polls, to the benefit of the Catalan Alliance. For all these reasons, it's now considering breaking away from the PSOE.

What does breaking up mean? We rule out supporting Feijóo to make him president with Vox's votes. Voting no to everything the PSOE puts forward and causing him to lose every vote could end up twisting the Socialists' arm, but it would be immediate. However, it also has limitations: years ago, you didn't vote on a government's budget and bring down a government; today, we govern without a budget. And, of course, ending the talks with Zapatero in the presence of an international mediator.

There has been talk that Junts would seek an instrumental candidate, other than Feijóo, to lead the government after a vote of no confidence, until elections are called, which would be next year. Miquel Roca's name has even been mentioned, but at 85 years old and recently recognized by King Felipe VI with the Golden Fleece, he doesn't seem to be in favor of such missions. However, in the last few hours, Roca coincidentally received a visit from a prominent Catalan leader who is not a member of Junts. Nothing else will be discussed in the coming days.

Good morning and have a nice weekend.