Antoni Bassas' analysis: 'Illa will not replace Sánchez'

Basically, Trump and Sánchez did what they always do yesterday. Trump threatens, and Sánchez resists. There's not much new news beyond the fact that when the president of the United States points his finger at you, the finger is seen around the world. If Trump only accepts being soaped, how can he not react if he's contradicted? Well, as he did yesterday, in a speech that will go down in history in Spanish-American relations:

"Spain is the only country that... Are you from Spain? Yes. Good. Congratulations. You're the only country that doesn't pay. I don't know what the problem is. I think it's a shame. We'll make it up to you. You know what we're going to do? We're negotiating a trade agreement with Spain. We'll make them pay double. I'm serious. We make Spain people. I like Spain. fantastic. But Spain is the only country, of all countries, that refuses to pay.

Trump in his purest form. He doesn't care that Spain's tariffs are being negotiated by the European Union, as part of a whole. Trump doesn't mind the other way around. And that's why he uses this sarcastic language: "What a shame that an economy that's doing so well now has to have a problem because it doesn't want to pay what I say it has to pay."

Is Sánchez refusing the 5% to create a smokescreen for the corruption cases? No. The cases are so serious that even a crisis with the president of the United States wouldn't cover them. But Sánchez is consistent: with his government partners, with his investiture partners, and given the current state of the welfare state in Spain, he can't compromise healthcare, education, or pensions to pay more money for weapons. And he does it like with the amnesty: out of necessity, virtue. And that's why he portrayed himself alone, he, who is always so friendly and talks to everyone.

Look, Trump doesn't say that the United States, the main arms manufacturer, will benefit from this huge arms purchase. And both Sánchez and Trump know that the United States and Spain have been allies for 72 years, ever since Franco's Spain agreed to establish American bases on its territory. Since then, if there has been a line of continuity in Spanish foreign policy, it has been the military alliance with the United States. It's never been broken, no matter who governs. And it won't be broken now, no matter how many threats Trump makes. By the way: what NATO approved yesterday is the intention that in ten years, by 2035, member countries will allocate 5% of GDP to defense. If you want, we can agree on ten years and make a list of all the countries that haven't complied. Because Look at this graph to see how far everyone is from 5%.Most spend around 2% today. Portugal, Italy, Canada, and Belgium don't even reach 2%, like Spain.

Amnesty? Today we will know if it is constitutionalSpoiler: The court will say yes. Nothing is expected to change the situation of exiles and those disqualified, because the Supreme Court is blocking the law.

Opa? We will soon know what BBVA's decision is.Yesterday, he said he won't be long in saying whether he'll withdraw the takeover bid or accept the Spanish government's conditions, which have delayed it for up to five years, or take it to court. There's a perception, based on the bank's stock price, for example, that the takeover bid didn't go well.

Sabadell, on the other hand, is euphoric. Today, they're publishing all kinds of advertising pages in the newspapers, and one of them shows the chart of the stock market prices of both banks since 2020, the first time Sabadell rejected the takeover bid. Sabadell's shares have appreciated 774% since then, while BBVA's haven't even appreciated half that much. BBVA will decide what it wants to do next, but it seems Sabadell has saved the match point.

I'm done. Yesterday, Minister Paneque was asked about the unexpected Sánchez-Illa meeting last Friday at the Moncloa Palace. Paneque argued that politics requires spaces of trust and privacy, and ruled out Isla being able to succeed Sánchez if Sánchez were unable to continue, because Isla has a "contract" with the Catalans and won't let him. Sánchez's problems have reached that level.

Good morning.