Antoni Bassas' analysis: "Failure to comply with Junts' obligations has consequences. Also for Junts."

These days I've been reviewing the interview that ARA conducted with Carles Puigdemont in July 2023, just before the Spanish elections. At the time, Puigdemont stated that Sánchez couldn't be sworn in due to a lack of trust, just as he couldn't be bought a second-hand car. He also said he didn't understand those parties; he was talking about Esquerra, which made deals for nothing.

A few days after that interview, history placed Junts in an unusual position: deciding, with only 7 votes, what government Spain would have. And they chose Sánchez. So we returned to Brussels and asked Puigdemont why Sánchez was trustworthy, and the former president of the Generalitat replied that it was because Junts would be paid in advance and because in the negotiating table in Switzerland There would be a mediator who could say that the second-hand car he was trying to sell to Sánchez was broken.

Hello, how are you? Two years after that interview, Puigdemont's calculation that he would get paid in advance and that a mediator would help keep the Socialists from cheating hasn't worked out too well. And that's why,Yesterday he announced that he was breaking off dialogue with the PSOEHe will not negotiate next year's state budget and is letting the Swiss dialogue continue. Consequently:

"The Spanish government will not have, nor will it be able to resort to the investiture majority. It will not have a budget. It will not have the capacity to govern. It may occupy seats, but it will not be able to govern. It may have power, but it will not be able to govern [...] Ours is not a political project that has Spanish stability as its vocation. If it goes well for Catalonia, let's talk. If not."

So Spain will not have a budget in 2026, and Sánchez will know if he can count on the votes of the JuntIt's when I see them on the Congressional voting scoreboard.

Of course, the only respite for Sánchez, who is used to surviving, is that Juntos will not support a motion of censure to make Feijóo president. And so, yesterday, an agreement that wasn't working too well was broken. For the rest, if Sánchez knows how to navigate these waters, he'll hold on.

Why is Junts doing this, beyond the reasons Puigdemont gave yesterday? That is, why is it giving up its greatest power (apart from municipal power), which is the famous seven Madrid MPs?

Let's see, in 2023, Junts set very high expectations, like saying it would negotiate the Catalonia-Spain political conflict around a table in Switzerland. Any of us, including Junts, could already see that it was difficult to resolve a centuries-old national conflict with only two parties talking. But if he didn't set the bar very high, he couldn't justify making a pact with a party that said it wasn't trustworthy and had supported Article 155. However, now, two years later, with each passing day we could be closer to calling elections, and Puigdemont wants Junts to go with a free hand and well separated from Esquerra. If Sánchez never calls for elections, Junts will no longer be there. And this is also because Junts feels overwhelmed by the polls and the speeches of the Catalan Alliance. Therefore, Puigdemont's calculation is that Junts must make its voice heard without outside noise.

Which brings us to a final question. Why is Junts making a move reminiscent of another high-profile resignation, that of leaving the coalition government with Pere Aragonès? Why has Junts once again relinquished the power or influence it has? In part, because Puigdemont, eight years later, is still in exile, and having to conduct politics as if the situation were normal is not normal. For all these reasons, Junts prefers to relinquish its share of power or influence but be able to say, as Jordi Turull did today on TV3, that "failing to deliver for Junts has consequences." The consequences for Junts of this exercise in the name of coherence, which temporarily leaves the party far from the center of the field, remain to be seen.

Good morning.