Risk of downpours until night, and rainstorm in the south

BarcelonaThe weather has become very complicated this Thursday, coinciding with the beginning of the month of October. Downpours and storms have been affecting many places irregularly for hours, and in some cases, torrential rains have occurred. This is the case in the Penedès, the Camp de Tarragona, and the Conca de Barberà, where over 50 l/m² have already been exceeded in some cases. So far, the 68 l/m² in La Bisbal del Penedès (Baix Penedès) and the 55 l/m² in Blancafort (Conca de Barberà) stand out.

This situation will continue until tonight, with a risk of heavy downpours especially in parts of the interior, the Pyrenees, the Pre-Pyrenees, the pre-coastal area, and the south of the country. The showers may be accompanied locally by hail, sleet, and strong gusts of wind. Meteocat maintains warnings for a large part of the country due to intense rain that could leave more than 40 l/m² in just half an hour, or more than 90 l/m² in three hours, especially in the Ebre region. There are nine counties on red alert in Tarragona, the Garraf, the Ebre, and the Penedès.

But pay attention to the Terres de l'Ebre –especially the Montsià and the Ports area– and the regions of Castelló, as during the evening, the night and Friday the rains will become persistent and can be very abundant. In these sectors it will rain heavily and records of between 100 and 200 l/m² will be reached in a few hours. Intense water that will also reach the coast of Valencia. Great caution with the risk of flooding and the sudden rise of rivers, streams, torrents and ravines. Aemet has also placed many regions of Castelló and Valencia on red alert until Friday.

Friday: attentive to the south

The rains will continue for much of the day in the south of the Terres de l'Ebre and in Castelló. They will fall persistently and with torrential downpours, which could leave local accumulations of more than 200 l/m² throughout the episode. In the afternoon, the storm will be more concentrated in Castelló and on the coast of Valencia. Locally intense but more scattered showers will also fall in the rest of the Valencian Country, and between the Pityusic Islands and the west of Mallorca.

On the other hand, not much rain is expected in most of Catalonia. Sky between variable and partly cloudy, with more abundant clearings in the northeast. Some weak and scattered showers will fall, especially in the southern and western half, and in the afternoon irregular downpours will be repeated with some local thunderstorms in the Pyrenees and the Pre-Pyrenees, especially the western part. Outside the south, little rain will fall, and by no means in all regions.

Regarding temperatures, it will be a bit cooler early in the day. The highs will be similar in most of Catalonia, but they will drop in the Pyrenees and especially in the Ebro and the Valencian Community. The highest ones will range between 23 and 28 ºC. Wind between northeasterly and easterly along the entire coast.

Uncertainty over the weekend

Looking ahead to the weekend, the forecast still has a high degree of uncertainty. The weather will remain very unstable, as the maritime flow driven by an anticyclone located further north will persist, while cold air at high altitudes will also remain. Meteorological models disagree on the distribution of the rain.

Some maps indicate that it could rain more persistently on the Catalan coast and in the northeast of the country, while others place the heaviest rainfall between the Valencian Community and the Balearic Islands. All of this will have to be confirmed. What is clear is that instability will remain pronounced throughout our Mediterranean zone, confirming the forecasts that indicated a rainy month of October in our area. Temperatures will continue to drop further.