Why Spain and Argentina reached the World Cup final
What leads a country with a much lower population to become a football powerhouse?
BarcelonaThe Football World Cup – which FIFA president Gianni Infantino, proposes selling partially to private investors– it is an event that, despite being accompanied by millions of figures and statistics, always reserves space for unpredictability and epic. Paraguay and Morocco were two examples. After eliminating Germany and the Netherlands in the round of 16, respectively, the two Global South teams defied the predictions that limited their chances of reaching the end of the tournament.
Their journey once again brings up a recurring question: why do some countries become football powerhouses while others, seemingly better positioned, fail to make the leap? China and India account for one in three of the planet's inhabitants. If football talent were solely a matter of population size, they should dominate football, basketball, or any other sport. However, reality contradicts this intuition. The eight countries that have lifted a World Cup – Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, Uruguay, England, and Spain – represent just 6% of the world's population.
What does a country with a much smaller population need to become a footballing powerhouse, while demographic giants like India, China, or the United States – which together account for nearly 40% of the world's population – have failed to establish themselves among the elite of men's football? Population is just one piece of a much more complex puzzle. Genetics, economic development, the degree of football professionalization, or even corruption levels are some of the factors that, according to the data collected, influence a team's chances of reaching the final rounds of the World Cup.
Genetics, a factor that also plays a role
Among the ten most populous countries in the world, there are five demographic powers that have never participated in a World Cup or have not advanced past the group stage. Only one of these ten teams has been proclaimed world champion: Brazil.
The seventh demographic power on the planet registers an average male height of 175.73 centimeters, higher than the average of the ten most populous countries (170.89 centimeters). In fact, the eight countries that have won at least one World Cup exceed this figure. Together, they present an average male height of 176.18 centimeters, and none of them are below 174 centimeters.
Developed economies prevail, with the exception of Brazil
In terms of human development, the pattern also favors champion selections. The twenty most populous countries in the world register an average Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.73, while seven of the eight world champions exceed 0.86. The HDI synthesizes indicators of income, education, and life expectancy and is one of the most widely used measures to compare the development level of countries. The exception is Brazil, with an HDI of 0.786, much closer to the average of the most populous countries than to that of the other world champions.
The difference is even more marked if GDP per capita is analyzed. The twenty most populous countries register an average of $15,536 per inhabitant per year, while that of the countries that have been champions or runners-up in the World Cup rises to $43,818.
The more professionalized football is, the more chances of success
The ten most populous countries have an average of 1,638 professional footballers – that is, players who obtain their main source of income from football. Among countries that have won a World Cup, the figure more than doubles, to an average of 3,495 professionals. Spain stands out, with 8,560 players, and Argentina, with 5,582.
If this figure is weighted by population volume, the differences are even more evident. The ten most populous countries register an average of 1.39 professional footballers per 100,000 inhabitants, while world champions reach 7.9. Spain (17.9) and Uruguay (15.3) lead this indicator.
Institutional quality also makes a difference
Institutional quality indicators also show a relationship with sporting success. Countries that have been world champions or runners-up score an average of 61 points on the corruption perception index, with values reaching 80 points in the case of Sweden and 77 in that of Germany.
In contrast, the twenty most populous countries score an average of 37.25 points. In this index, compiled by Transparency International, a score of 0 indicates a high perception of corruption, while 100 corresponds to countries with a public administration perceived as more integrous.