The recipe and ingredients of the world champion selector

BarcelonaEvery World Cup leaves a recurring image: a coach on the pitch, surrounded by his players, who seems to have reached the end of a path walked for years. Meanwhile, out of focus, the rest of the football world tries to find the explanations, keys, or recipe that allow a team to lift the World Cup. What are the ingredients to win the top football competition? This question fuels a good part of the debates in these weeks. Will a younger, innovative coach, like Julian Nagelsmann (38 years old, Germany), prevail? Or will it be a more veteran coach? The most veteran of all, Dick Advocaat, 78 years old, can no longer, as Curaçao has been eliminated.

There is no secret formula; sport is full of stories that defy predictions. However, patterns can be identified in the last two decades. From Lippi's Italy to Scaloni's Argentina, there are trajectories, styles, and team structures that have aligned to make them champions.

Balances between youth and experience

The five champion teams shared one characteristic: they were experiencing a generational transition, and maintained the right dose of experience thanks to a solid core of seasoned players.

Marcello Lippi is the first example. In 2006, the Italian national team reached the World Cup with a squad where only eight players repeated. He opted for a profound renewal, with a young squad supported by figures like Buffon, Totti, Del Piero, or Cannavaro. The same pattern was followed by Vicente del Bosque's Spain in 2010. It inherited the list from Euro 2008, with eleven players under 25 years old. It presented a young block where Casillas, Puyol, Villa, Iniesta, or Torres acted as benchmarks and provided experience.

The case of Germany in 2014 was the culmination of a transformation that began in 2006. Joachim Löw arrived in Brazil with a young team captained by Schweinsteiger, Müller, Podolski, Klose, and Lahm. A similar transformation was experienced by France with Didier Deschamps. They presented themselves at the 2018 World Cup with young prospects like Mbappé, alongside established footballers like Lloris, Giroud, Pogba, or Matuidi. The latest example is Scaloni's Argentina, which won in 2022 with an emerging generation and the leadership of Messi, Di María, and Otamendi.

Game formations with a predominance of 4-3-3

Four of the five champion managers between 2006 and 2022 had 4-3-3 as their reference system. The only exception was Lippi, who alternated between 4-4-1-1 and 4-3-1-2. The rest opted for 4-3-3 with their own nuances. Del Bosque used it to boost Villa in attack, resorting to 4-4-2 if he wanted two offensive references with Torres. Joachim Löw faced 2014 with a flexible 4-3-3 that turned into 4-1-4-1 around Schweinsteiger or evolved into a 4-2-3-1 depending on the match.

Deschamps also based his success on 4-3-3, with Griezmann acting as a hybrid between attacking midfield and forward, and alternated with 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Scaloni's Argentina mainly opted for 4-3-3 in 2022, although they sometimes reconverted it to a 4-4-2, especially when Di María was not on the pitch.

The priority of keeping a clean sheet

In the last five World Cups, the average goals per game has ranged between 2.27 and 2.69. Four of the five teams maintained an average of less than one goal conceded per game; the only exception was Scaloni's Argentina, with an average of 1.14 goals conceded.

The moderate offensive production of the champions also stands out. Only Löw's Germany (2014) registered an average of goals for (2.57) close to that of the tournament. The rest did not exceed two goals per game, and the most significant case is that of Spain in 2010, who won the trophy with an average of 1.14 goals scored per game.

The trajectories of the selectors also converge

With the exception of Scaloni, the coaches were 50 years or older when they were crowned champions. All had been internationals with their respective teams at some point in their careers, whether in the senior or youth categories. None had a nationality different from the team they managed, a fact that generates debate following the arrival of Carlo Ancelotti in Brazil. Their stability also stands out: all had been in charge for at least two years, with an average of 4.8 years.

Can Luis de la Fuente win the 2026 World Cup?

The Spanish national coach has been working within the Federation's structure for thirteen years, where he has managed lower categories. He is 65 years old, was a U-21 and Olympic international, uses the 4-3-3 as his main formation and combines it with the 4-2-3-1 depending on the context. Furthermore, he has a young squad with an average age of 26.1 years, practically identical to that of 2010. He also has veterans who are over thirty and act as role models, such as David Raya, Marcos Llorente, Fabián Ruiz, or Aymeric Laporte.

The stars seem aligned. Now all that remains is to see if the patterns that have defined the last world champions will weigh more than the unpredictability and epic that always accompany a World Cup.