What are the regions with more infections a few days before the Easter holidays?

The Vall d'Aran and Osona are still among the areas with the highest incidence of the virus, and the Conca de Barberà is a cause for concern

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Cumulative incidence in Catalonia in the last 14 days

GironaFrom 8 to 77 new infections per week. It is the growth of cases that has been registered in Montblanc in only two weeks and that has caused the whole region to be in a "dangerous situation", according to the investigator of Biocomsc-UPC, Enric Álvarez, who points out that if all Catalonia detected this increase it would return "to the situation that was lived during the first wave". The Department of Health reports that the 144 cases detected since February 16 "would be the result of a grouping that has several outbreaks in different bubbles, some related to each other", and have also affected the educational community: the Institute Martí l'Humà of Montblanc is the one with the highest incidence (8 groups and 204 people in lockdown), followed by schools Martí Poch de L'Espluga de Francolí and Les Muralles de Montblanc, with a group and a score of people in lockdown in each center, according to data from the Education Department.

Between Wednesday and Friday the Health Department will conduct a population screening in the Casal de Montblanc. In parallel, the City of Montblanc decided on Monday to implement restrictive measures such as the closure of sports facilities and playgrounds, in addition to strengthening surveillance on public roads, "especially in terraces and spaces with accumulation of people", as specified by the consistory in a statement. Also, from the Regional Council of Conca de Barberà they have asked the population to avoid mobility and meetings in enclosed spaces to try to stop the spread of the virus in other populations.

Currently, Conca de Barberà is the Catalan region with the highest percentage of positive tests: 18% -according to the WHO it should be below 5%-. In addition, the reproduction rate is 3.98 - it should be less than 1 - and the accumulated incidence is 546 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, when it should be below 100. By municipalities, Montblanc concentrates the bulk of the infections recorded in the region in the last week (77 of 92), but the virus is beginning to spread: municipalities like Sarral and L'Espluga de Francolí have gone, in seven days, from 0 to 8 and 5 cases, respectively.

The north, further punished

Among the counties with more accumulated incidence, Aran and Osona continue at the top of the ranking, although they have reduced the number of cases. It is now three weeks since the Aranese territory notifies around forty new positives a week, and a month ago there were about ninety. The reproduction rate is 1 and 11% of the tests are positive. "The problem of Aran is that it fails to reduce the spread completely and is now also affecting their environment", said Alvarez, who gives as an example the evolution of Alta Ribagorça, Pallars Jussà or Pallars Sobirà, where they have been detecting different outbreaks that have raised the incidence.

As for Osona, it has decreased the number of new cases per week: from 451 to 373, if we compare the figures of the last fifteen days. The bulk is registered in Vic (116), followed by Centelles (43), Manlleu (30) and Calldetenes (20). In the latter municipality, the growth of new positives detected is worrying: from 1 to 20 in seven days.

The Garrotxa and Ripollès counties have also seen a rise in the number of cases. In the Garrotxa region, the number of new infections per week has risen from 89 to 126, thus reversing the downward trend that had been recorded since mid-February. Most of the new positives are in Olot (85 out of 126), but the increases in Santa Pau (which has gone from 5 to 15 new cases in a week) and Vall d'en Bas (from 0 to 5) are worrying.

In Ripollès, new weekly positives have doubled: from 23 to 50. Most are from Camprodon (20), followed by Ripoll (14) and Llanars (6). The county did not record these figures of new weekly cases since early February, when he managed to reduce the number of infections, after spending the Christmas holidays with more severe measures that the rest of the country because of the high incidence that was recorded in December.

The Ebre and Tarragona, the regions with less incidence

"The problem is that all the interior and northern Catalonia is stagnant at very high levels", says Alvarez, who also stresses that we must keep an eye on the figures that will be reported in the coming days in much of the Vallès Occidental and in the area of Segrià and Pla d'Urgell, because lately it is noticing an increase in cases.

On the contrary, the regions with fewer positive cases are those of Terres de l'Ebre, Camp de Tarragona and the Costa Brava. In fact, the situation of these territories is enviable: in Baix Ebre and Montsià, for example, a dozen cases have been reported in the last week, and in Priorat, no new positive cases in the last seven days.

"The map shows huge differences between the Aran and Osona area and the Ebre and Tarragona area. We will have to keep an eye on how the mobility that may occur during Easter Week affects these areas", concludes the researcher.