The eight hypotheses that the Civil Guard is investigating about the origin of the Adamuz accident

Barcelona"Based on the above and as of the current date, this possibility cannot be definitively ruled out, pending the completion of the remaining information to be gathered." This is one of the most repeated phrases in the Civil Guard's initial report on the cause of the accident. from Adamuz, which on January 18 caused the death of 46 people and left more than 150 injuredThe document, to which ARA has had access, presents up to eight hypotheses that could have caused the tragic accident, and, for the moment, the police force explains that they do not have enough information to rule any of them out.

The investigation that the Civil Guard submitted to the court in Montoro (Córdoba) on February 5 details how the accident occurred at kilometer 318 of the Madrid-Seville high-speed line between 7:43:37 PM and 7:43:41 PM on January 18. They also explain that Adif's cameras allow them to know the time of the impact, but not "confirm how it occurred, as the moment of the collision was not observed." They still maintain that the sequence of events was that the Iryo train traveling towards Madrid partially derailed, causing subsequent trains to cross into the oncoming lane where the Alvia train, traveling from Madrid to Huelva, was traveling, and that it collided with the Alvia at a speed of 208 kilometers per hour.

In addition to specifying the circumstances of the accident, the report analyzes up to eight hypotheses regarding the cause of the crash.

Rail breakage or defective welding

According to the Civil Guard, and as previously speculated, one of the possible causes of the accident is the breakage of a rail that was defective from the factory. In this regard, they mention that on January 26th they requested Adif (the Spanish railway infrastructure manager) to provide data on the batch of rails used on the section where the accident occurred, and that this request "is still pending." Another hypothesis being investigated by the police force is a faulty weld. The report indicates that "one of the causes" could be the breakage of the weld joining a rail from 2023 to one from 1989 at the point of the accident. In both cases, the police investigation notes that if a rail or a weld had broken, there would have been a voltage drop in the track circuits. Therefore, they are requesting voltage data for the circuit from January 12th to 18th.

At the same time, they are also considering the possibility that the accident was due to the "general condition of the track bed, gravel, rails, clips, and welds." To verify this, investigators have requested documentation regarding the construction tender, the company undertaking the work, the construction company, and the company responsible for the last work on the section where the accident occurred. At the time of submitting the initial report, this information had not yet been provided. Another possibility being considered by the Civil Guard is that there was a defect in the trains involved in the accident or in trains that had previously passed through the section, and some clothing may have fallen onto them. Again, the police force indicates that they lack the data to rule out this possibility because access has not been authorized.

Furthermore, the initial report also investigates the lack of prevention and maintenance or the use of "inadequate materials." The three options are being investigated alongside the previous hypotheses, and to that end, among other things, the Civil Guard has conducted interviews with Adif, requested reports from the train drivers' union Semaf, and inquired about workplace risk prevention and irregularities detected by Renfe and Iryo.

Reckless driving or sabotage

The initial report still raises two other hypotheses. One is the possibility that the accident was caused by negligence or recklessness on the part of some of the train drivers involved. The Civil Guard notes that the Alvia train driver lost his life and that the information they have gathered "does not indicate, a priori," any anomalous, negligent, or reckless actions. In the case of the Iryo train driver, who was unharmed, they explain that he underwent both alcohol and drug tests, which were negative. Furthermore, they point out that "his actions do not demonstrate recklessness or negligence as the cause of the derailment and collision." Finally, the police force also addresses sabotage and terrorism as possible motives for the accident. They explain that they are investigating whether the breakage of a rail or a weld could have been due to cutting with machinery or the use of a corrosive or explosive substance. The Civil Guard has requested analyses from several laboratories, but upon submitting the report in question, they stated that this possibility could not be ruled out "pending further information."