The dilemma of shutting down an entire country because of the wind: was it justified?

BarcelonaRed and orange hues painted the map across much of Catalonia on Thursday due to a powerful storm, prompting the Catalan government to implement a nationwide lockdown. Images of uprooted trees and fallen infrastructure in the streets, collapsed roofs, power outages, and disruptions to roads, trains, and flights have been circulating since the early hours, particularly in the Barcelona area. From a strictly technical standpoint, the maximum alert was justified, according to experts. This is an exceptional event affecting densely populated areas with high traffic and are not accustomed to such strong winds. But not all areas have been affected equally, and this apparent divergence between the forecast and reality has sparked complaints from local communities in the far reaches of the country, who have lamented that the storm's activation was not localized, as was the case with the recent storms that affected the Girona region and the Ebro River basin. The Catalan Minister of the Interior, Núria Parlon, expressed her conviction that the closure of schools, universities, and non-urgent medical care, as well as the recommendations to limit travel during the windstorm, were effective in reducing accidents, although there were approximately eighty injuries. The fact that winds exceeded 100 km/h in densely populated urban areas along the Barcelona coast and pre-coastal region, as happened today, is unusual. It had been years since such a strong windstorm had been recorded in that area. In contrast, in much of the Terres de l'Ebre, the Camp de Tarragona, and the Costa Brava, areas more accustomed to the force of the mistral and tramontana winds, the gusts were ultimately not as intense. The forecasts predicted a widespread gale, exceptional in its extent and intensity, but with irregular impacts. Therefore, given this variability, a dilemma arose: should the entire country be shut down?

"When a restrictive measure is applied due to strong winds, it's not done simply because there's a warning, but because there's science behind it, professional technicians who confirm that the public is exposed directly or indirectly to danger, such as an increase in accidents during travel. Political leaders must trust the technicians," explains Montserrat Iglesias Lucía, director of the School of Prevention and Comprehensive Security at the UAB (Autonomous University of Barcelona).

In the field of civil protection, the basis of actions is to prevent and minimize risks that can cause personal and material damage, but also to protect infrastructure, and the experts consulted consider that the precedents in Catalonia regarding inclement weather, such as the extreme rains in Tarragona last December or the storm Harry –The Empordà region—which denied the claim—had weakened vegetation, street furniture, and infrastructure. "Prevention, if it works, will be invisible," the doctor indicates.

If it were summer now, or if we were experiencing months of drought, experts explain, with the same wind forecast, the concern would be wildfires, but measures would very likely have been necessary as well. "People are warned based on preventative criteria, which is what the administration can do: ensure that, within its responsibilities, the risk of accidents and emergencies is minimized," says Manel Pardo, former Director General of Civil Protection in Catalonia, the Barcelona Fire Department, and the Fire Prevention, Extinction, and Rescue Service.

This doesn't mean there isn't a degree of uncertainty in the predictions; they are never entirely accurate, but they have improved in the last twenty years. "You might not be able to pinpoint the exact gust strength at 2 PM in a specific location, but as an administration, you can observe the trend and identify situations that need to be avoided. For example, if infrastructure isn't prepared to withstand more severe weather," Pardo states. In his opinion, a general message was conveyed based on the weather forecast, and the situation was well managed, understood as a call for the involvement of all citizens.

The post-damage syndrome

Since the tragic DANA storm in Valencia in October 2024, the Generalitat (Valencian regional government) has acted decisively in the face of emergencies and adverse weather. School closures, for example, have been ordered at least three times: in November 2024—a few weeks after the tragedy in the Valencian Community—in southern Catalonia due to heavy rains; in October 2025, also due to flooding in the Ebro River basin; and this past January in the easternmost districts of Girona province. However, until now, the response to the situation across the entire region had not been so forceful.

"Right now, there is a clear before and after the disastrous handling of the DANA storm emergency in Valencia, or rather, the irresponsibility of those in charge. And it seems that if the alternative to acting cautiously is to overreact, that's what they do," argues the former director of Tórns. Regarding the criticism from mayors in the Girona region and the south of the country, who considered it unnecessary to halt activities, Iglesias Lucía responds: "Even where the risk wasn't red, but orange, there was still a risk. If a tragedy occurs due to the gale, you can't demand accountability for the wind blowing, but if the wind blows, it should be based on scientific data."

Delort also emphasizes that emergency management is not an exact science. "There are plans, protocols, but ultimately someone has to make the decision based on the technical information they receive," he points out, adding: "It's not just the context or the prediction; it requires skill; emergency management is an art." The debate about whether it's necessary to shut down the country due to adverse weather is not new. On April 14, 2001, an unexpected snowfall paralyzed much of the country at a time when the Catalan government (Generalitat) did not yet have a Directorate General of Civil Protection or specific plans like Neucat. The forecast fell short then, and Catalonia was completely cut off by the snow. In subsequent years, there has been a tendency to act more proactively, even at the risk of appearing excessive—such as the calls to avoid travel to the Pyrenees or the restrictions on heavy vehicles in 2018—which drew criticism for being over-the-top.

In deploying restrictions for climate emergencies—and any civil threat—it's important to consider that recommendations and technical data coexist with leadership styles and approaches. "Within these dilemmas of deciding which imperative actions to take, one factor is the territorialization of risk, and today it's true that not the entire map was red. But there's a lot of movement of people, goods, and services, and it's not so simple to draw boundaries from one region to another. Often, there isn't a more selective way to act," Del argues. "After the great tragedy in Valencia, there's an increase, still in its early stages, in awareness and responsibility among citizens and government agencies. But we're fortunate to have a very well-established and professional Civil Protection system, which recommends making decisions based not only on quantitative criteria but also on qualitative ones," adds Iglesias Lucía.

Demanding Accountability

According to Pardo, emergency management used to be left to the citizens, who had less support from the administration. "That's why everyone says that people in small towns and villages are more resourceful than in cities," he points out. But now everyone is asking for more protection, more warnings, from the government. And it's all part of a kind of post-damage syndrome"Until now, in general, we hadn't worried. But the extremes of the weather phenomena we face lead us to risky situations, and we must be more aware than ever," says Pardo. However, experts remind us that the fewer ES-Alerts sent, the better, to avoid distorting their meaning; that is, to prevent the public from interpreting them as an emergency message. "As a government, you can always act too strongly or too weakly, but always based on a technical decision. What the rest of us must avoid is questioning those technical criteria," argues Pardo. And Iglesias Lucía adds: "This isn't just about following recommendations, but about adopting self-protection measures. This will give us more tools to reduce exposure and share responsibility with the administration's measures."

Delort is also clear about the fact that, in recent times, several emergencies have been linked in which the government's response has been the interruption of services or the closure of businesses: "This is a tool that must be used carefully, because afterwards you have to be able to prove it. There are things that are difficult to manage, or that are not difficult to manage. Images from this Thursday, it doesn't seem unreasonable."

The use of certain mechanisms available to the administration in emergency situations, whether proactively, like ES-Alert, or mandatorily, like restrictions, must be used with strong justification. "I believe that to this day the entire emergency management system is adapting to these new tools and these new situations, which are becoming increasingly frequent," Delort admits.