The new imperialism takes hold and the world enters an unpredictable mode

Washington / Beijing / London / Beirut“The old world is dying, the new one is slow to appear. And in this chiaroscuro, monsters emerge,” wrote Antonio Gramsci from the prison where Italian fascism had confined him. The communist thus encapsulated the upheavals of the early 20th century. Almost a hundred years later, the old multilateralism of the post-World War II era is unraveling under the same sense of disorientation and helplessness. After Russia opened the floodgates with Ukraine and China made its aspirations regarding Taiwan clear, Donald Trump—returned to power by the far right—has illegally intervened in Venezuela and is preparing to plunder its oil while threatening Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico. A fatal blow to the United Nations system, after the contempt he showed from the heart of the UN.

Trump takes off the mask

In 2012, the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicted that by 2030 the United States would maintain its hegemonic position within the international system. It would be questioned by other countriesfocusing on China. In this loss of its role as a "superpower," the US would move to an order where it would become "first among equals," and, moreover, it warned that the Pax Americana was "unraveling." Fourteen years after the prescient report, Trump appears as yet another symptom of that breakdown. The Republican's interpretation of the situation is not so different from the NIC's analysis, but his proposed solution is.

Trump appears as an accelerator of the collapse of multilateralism that had already been underway for some time. But contrary to the NIC's advice—which encouraged the US to maintain its role as a global mediator—the president has chosen to implement the geopolitics of the 19th centuryIf the country is on the path to losing its superpower status, it is best to anticipate the forecast and ensure that Washington maintains its leading position in this new world of competition in which it has already recognized Beijing and Moscow as equals.

American economic, commercial, and technological hegemony has long been challenged, especially by China. In recent years, Washington's fear has become evident that Beijing surpasses it in the technological fieldFaced with this weakening, the Republican has clung to the only area where, for the moment, the US is still the leader: military supremacy. One of the many layers of the military intervention in Venezuela It's a display of military muscle against the other competitors. Trump hasn't stopped boasting that no other country in the world would be capable of kidnapping another leader so efficiently.

With this opportunity now on the table, the Republican wants to stake his claim against the other powers and subdue those he considers weak. starting with Europe, to whom he has made it clear that he intends to occupy Greenland. Before the world to come has even finished taking shape, Trump wants to move forward and set the rules: to divide it into spheres of influence. The US claims control of the Western Hemisphere, and while all eyes are on Latin America and the Arctic islands, Canada already It is preparing for when Trump turns on them with the demand to annex them as the 51st state.

Although it remains to be seen to what extent the Republican will actually disengage from the presence he had deployed in other regions, such as the South China Sea. It is also ironic that the main tool of soft power from the US, USAID, and that it could compete with its Chinese counterpart, the New Silk Road, It was dismantled by Trump as soon as he came to power.

Despite Trump being a major climate change denier, it's undeniable that part of this geopolitical shift towards an extractivist vision is also framed within a world immersed in a full-blown climate crisis. Colonialism began in the late 15th century as a need to find more resources in a Europe already stretched to its limits. Now, the new imperialism of the 21st century is driven by the need to secure resources –not just rare earths– amid this new race where climate refugees will become an increasingly common phenomenon. Since 2020, water It is already listed on the Wall Street futures market.

Xi Jinping wants the whole world

If we were to follow the Monroe Doctrine, updated as the Donroe Doctrine in honor of Donald Trump, the world would be divided into spheres of influence under the control of a single hegemonic power. In this case, the United States would reign over the Americas, and China would dominate Asia.

The formula is simple, but it has flaws. First, it is not credible that the United States would withdraw from the Asia-Pacific region, abandon loyal allies like Japan and South Korea, and leave the field open in the People's Republic of China. It is also difficult to believe that Xi Jinping's government—and those that will follow—would be content with only Asia. China is the Western name for Zhongguo, which means country of the centerAnd the Chinese are very clear that this has always been their place in the world. Currently, a developed China, transformed into the world's second largest economyChina desires to lead the world, or at least shape it to its needs. It is achieving this with Washington's help. International law is no longer sacrosanct, the democratic system is crumbling, and human rights are not respected. Beijing argues that instead of being universal, these rights can be adapted to the needs of each country. The law of the strongest, not consensus, prevails in international relations.

Although it denies any hegemonic ambition, to achieve this global leadership, Beijing relies more on trade than on a large army, which it does possess. The New Silk Road, the network of trade corridors, infrastructure, and telecommunications it is trying to develop worldwide, is the vehicle for conquest. This network has guaranteed access to natural resources and an expanded market for its products. China has already managed to dominate the production of rare earth minerals, a key element for negotiating with the world. It is in this context, for example, that Washington considers acquiring the strategic territory of Greenland crucial to its interests.

The Asian giant It has a strong presence in Latin America And in Africa, it has done so with a different vision of Western colonialism. Beijing not only buys energy, minerals, and food, but also invests in developing infrastructure in these places and floods them with its products. The result is that these states become dependent on Chinese investment.

For now, its natural sphere of influence is Asia-Pacific, an area that many experts believe will shape the geopolitics of the future. Other giants like India can challenge it, and neighbors like Japan and South Korea have the United States committed to military defense with a deployment of some 100,000 troops, but Beijing is now, by far, the region's main trading partner. There are points of friction in this area that could determine the world to come. The first is Taiwan, which China persistently aspires to reunify with its territory. The second is control over the South China Sea, where Beijing is clashing with its neighbors, claiming sovereignty over 90% of its waters based on a 1949 map that alleges historical rights. China has already built seven artificial islands since 2014, where it has established military bases. This sea, rich in natural resources, is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, through which 30% of global trade passes.

Putin's nostalgic imperialism threatens Europe

Vladimir Putin's imperialism has roots that go beyond a reaction to NATO's eastward expansion.When the Atlantic Alliance, breaking the promises made in Moscow in 1991, invited Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania to become members during the 2002 Prague summit. Several analysts of Russian politics agree that the Kremlin's foreign policy since 2000—with Putin's rise to power—is part of a historical continuity of expansion and restoration of Russian power in the former Soviet sphere of influence.

One of the reference texts is Putin's wars: rise of Russia's new imperialismThe Dutch scholar Marcel H. Van Herpen interprets the Second Chechen War, the Georgian War, and the Ukrainian War as pieces of the same strategic horizon. According to this thesis, the Kremlin's military and geopolitical expansion goes hand in hand with increasingly firm internal control and a narrative of recovering the prestige lost after the Soviet collapse. Putin, in his 2005 speech to the Russian Federal Assembly, described this collapse as "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century." This statement encapsulates a worldview in which the end of the USSR meant the mutilation of the great Russia of the 19th century.

Putin himself has reinforced the instrumental use of history to fuel imperial dreams. Other analysts have also observed a Kremlin insistence on drawing a direct line between Peter the Great, the Tsarist empire, the Soviet Union, and the current Russian Federation. It is no coincidence that Putin has explicitly championed his own legacy, stating that he "did not conquer territories, but rather reclaimed them." The formula resonates strongly in the war in Ukraine.

Putin's new imperialism—also based on the postulates of Aleksandr Dugin and his idea of Eurasia—has resulted in successive wars in the former Soviet periphery and frozen conflicts—Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia. Far from bringing stability, Putin's 21st-century imperialism erodes the European order that emerged from the fall of the Berlin Wall, threatens the Baltic states—formerly part of the USSR—and those that were part of the Warsaw Pact, and condemns Russia to permanent confrontation, especially with Europe, increasingly exposed to it.

Netanyahu reshapes the Middle East

The Middle East remains the battleground of a new, modern colonialism. Strategic resources, trade routes, and military power attract the attention of external powers, which seek to consolidate their influence through agreements, diplomatic pressure, and military deployments. But the region is not merely a passive stage. Local actors are active, negotiating and projecting their ambitions, seizing every opportunity to strengthen their position.

Israel moves with surgical precision. It combines military deterrence, targeted operations, and strategic alliances with the United States and some Arab states to maintain its dominant role. Every conflict, from Gaza to Syria and Lebanon, is an opportunity to reaffirm power and recalibrate threatsEspecially in relation to Iran. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, and Turkey seek to expand their influence through investment, diplomacy, and mediation in other countries' crises, aware that instability can be both profitable and an opportunity. In this scenario, alliances and tensions shift rapidly, as external powers compete for presence and control, calculating risks and benefits at every turn.

The result is a Middle East that is no longer merely a victim of foreign interests. It is a space where local powers reinvent themselves, adjust strategies, and seek prominence in a multipolar world, while the shadow of neo-colonialism looms over everyone, shaping the future of the region and those who observe it.