Rain, the fuel that can complicate fires this summer

BarcelonaThis spring's rains have allowed the greenery and water to recover across the country, putting an end to the historic drought of the last three and a half years. Thus, it would be easy to think that, with these conditions, this summer will not be as painful as the fires. But nothing could be further from the truth. The rain has caused the undergrowth to grow like it hasn't in a long time, while the forests have thousands of dead trees that have not endured the lack of water for so many years. All of this becomes fuel for fires, especially as summer and the heat progress and the ground dries out naturally.

"The rains should not fool us into thinking we're in for a peaceful summer," warned the Minister of the Interior, Núria Parlon, this Friday at the presentation of the 2025 forestry campaign from Sabadell Airport. Grasses and bushes have grown significantly in fields and forests throughout Catalonia, and now, due to a natural climate process, they will dry out in the summer heat.

This drying process of vegetation is completely normal in the Mediterranean during the hot months. The problem is that this year there is also the added complication that nearly 28% of the trees have died during the drought, and in the event of a fire, they would also be an important fuel for spreading the flames.

This context, according to Parlon, could "complicate" this year's forestry campaign. The regional minister has called for "maximum caution" and to avoid assuming that spring rains will lead to an "easy" summer. In fact, the Department of the Interior predicts that the situation could become especially complicated in July, the typically driest and warmest month.

In this regard, experts tell ARA that the only solution to address this scenario is prevention and forest management. "All these elements must be taken into account when carrying out forest management to avoid excessive fires," explains Francisco Lloret, a professor at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) and a researcher at the Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF).

The expert clarifies that the undergrowth that has grown thanks to the spring rains is not what is most worrying, but rather the dry trees in forests across the country. "The spread of the flames may be more pronounced this year, but the undergrowth is that of a normal year, and these types of grasses burn quickly and don't cause large fires on their own; the problem is the accumulated logs, many due to the drought, which are a more important fuel for the fires," Lloret says.

Although the entire country has suffered the harsh impact of this drought, there are regions where the effects have been particularly severe and their forests are more vulnerable in the event of a fire. This is the case in coastal and pre-coastal areas, such as Garraf and Penedès, or in the south of the country, particularly Priorat and Les Garrigues.

Overall, the Ministry of the Interior is working on the scenario of a "classic" summer in Catalonia, according to Parlon. That is, with meteorological values similar to or slightly higher than usual. Despite the extraordinary early heat of recent days and the forecast that June could be warmer than normal, everything indicates that long periods of extreme heat should not occur.

With the current long-term maps, the rest of the summer looks set to be as warm as usual or slightly above average. As for rainfall, models indicate it will be light, given that this is a dry time of year in our country. Autumn could be wetter again.

Toward a more arid climate

After so much drought, this year summer finally arrives with guarantees both in terms of water—the reservoirs in the inland basins are at 80% capacity—and in terms of forest hydration. But all forecasts indicate that droughts as long and extreme as this one will soon be repeated. "Fires are part of our ecosystems and forests; the problem is that as a result of the new climatic conditions, the risk of fires will be greater due to the lack of rain and rising temperatures," Lloret points out.

In this context, experts assure that Catalonia is in the process of a future that everything points to will be more arid," explains the researcher. A good example of this process that has begun is the large number of trees that have died, many of which will no longer be replaced by new ones.

But there is another factor that attests to this aridification, and that is the water deficit that still lingers and which will hardly be fully recovered. "When a territory enters a dynamic of recurring dry periods, in each drought a sheet of Catalonia is lost (SMC).

He gives the example of Montseny, which during the three years of drought stopped receiving 1,400 l/m² of rain, and assures that the next drought will arrive without having compensated for this water deficit that has not yet been reversed. We will not recover this deficit before the next one arrives," says the expert.

20% less rain by the end of the century

The climate projections currently being worked on by the SMC predict that Catalonia will have 20% less annual rainfall on average by the end of the century. "It will be a slow process, but this is a huge figure; can you imagine if GDP fell by 20%? It would be a catastrophe," says Altava.

These same forecasts suggest that by the end of the century there will be parts of the country where the average temperature will be more than 5 or 6 degrees above average, far exceeding the warming projected for the entire planet. In fact, there has already been evidence of this scenario in recent years, as in 2023 (the worst year of the drought) it rained 40% less than normal, and in the last three years the annual temperature was more than 2°C above average in Catalonia. Therefore, drier terrain makes it easier for thermometers to shoot up.

Faced with these effects of the climate crisis, the message is clear: we must prepare. "Now it's time to manage the territory to be better prepared for when the next drought arrives," Altava concludes. Lloret agrees: "We must remember this drought and project it into the future, because temperatures will continue to rise and we will experience droughts again." He warns: "With these rains, we have gained another year of implementing forest and water management policies; we must take advantage of them."