Covid infections in Catalonia are expected to increase over the next fortnight
Experts insist that the focus is on the unvaccinated, who make up 70% of those admitted
BarcelonaCovid indicators continue on the rise in Catalonia. According to the latest data published by the Department of Health, there are 376 patients in hospital because of covid, nine more than the previous day, as well as two new admissions to intensive care, taking the total to 90. The Department of Health has also reported 492 new covid infections. Effective potential growth (EPG) has risen six points to 130, while the rate of infection (Rt) – the speed at which the disease spreads – has fallen one hundredth and has been placed at 1.54: each person who gets infected passes it on to one and a half people on average..
The forecast is that the contagions will increase at least in the next fifteen days, according to Clara Prats a Biocomsc researcher at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC). In statements to Catalunya Ràdio, Prats assured that the probability that covid grows "is higher" than that it stops. Even so, she has not dared to predict what may be the impact over Christmas. "For the first time in the whole pandemic we are at the tail end of Europe," said Prats, because the cases have begun to increase "much later".
The researcher has compared Catalonia with Denmark –vaccination rates are similar– where in September all restrictions were lifted and a couple of weeks later there was an increase in infections that has remained "stable". Now, two months later, hospitals are beginning to fill up. Prats predicted that, thanks to vaccines, there will be fewer serious cases. She has pointed out that the bands in which the incidence is soaring is that of children under 12, who cannot be vaccinated, and between 30 and 50, where vaccination is not making any progress.
According to the Department of Health, 5,907,809 Catalans are fully vaccinated (74.6% of the population). In the last 24 hours 1,271 doses have been administered (603 first doses, 608 second doses and 60 third doses).
"Increase at a different speed"
Experts have not yet spoken of a sixth wave, because they have assessed that this growth "would not have to have anything to do" with previous waves, according to Prats. Also on Catalunya Ràdio, the head of the infectious diseases service at the Hospital del Mar, Dr Robert Güerri, said he believed cases would spread more slowly. They have insisted that the focus is on the unvaccinated, who make up 70% of those admitted to hospitals for covid. In Catalonia, among vaccinated under-70s only one in every 100,000 is admitted to hospital, while among the unvaccinated admitted the figure is 10 out of 100,000.
The head of preventive medicine at the Hospital Clínic, Dr Antoni Trilla, said on Catalunya Ràdio that the more people are vaccinated, the more "controlled" the pandemic will be. For that reason, if the contagions soar, he has not ruled out the option of extending the obligation of presenting a covid pass, as already happens in nightclubs and some restaurants. The head of preventive medicine and epidemiology at Vall d'Hebron hospital, Dr Magda Campins, insisted on using masks indoors.
As for the growth in infections, all three doctors – Güerri, Trilla and Campins – have admitted they are "concerned" about covid cases combining with the flu. That is why they have asked the government to keep on the extra staff hired during the pandemic, as covid contracts on December 31.
