Cancer is expected to cause more than 18 million deaths by 2050.

BarcelonaEarly diagnosis and the arrival of innovative treatments have opened a window of hope in the fight against cancer in developed countries, where life expectancy is gradually increasing despite the progression of the disease. However, between 1990 and 2023, there has been an acceleration in the number of cases and deaths in less-resourced countries, which often have weak health systems that fail to detect most patients and make it virtually impossible to treat them. access to new (but expensive) therapiesA worrying scenario that is expected to worsen further, as the annual analysis of the Global Burden of Disease, with data from 204 countries and 47 types of cancer, indicates that deaths will increase to 18 million in 2050, almost 75% more than in 2024. ~BK_S published this Wednesday in The Lancet, It notes that, worldwide, the number of cancer cases has more than doubled since 1990, reaching 18.5 million in 2023, while the number of deaths has increased by 74% to 10.4 million. Breast cancer was the most commonly diagnosed type, while tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer was the leading cause of death, followed by colorectal and stomach cancer. According to this snapshot, while developed countries have managed to flatten the cancer mortality curve by between 23% and 33% over the past 30 years, low-income countries have increased it by 14% over the same period.

"Cancer control policies remain a low priority in global health: there is not enough funding to address this challenge in many settings," warns the article's lead author, an oncologist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. But this warning doesn't affect the less privileged part of the world: 25-year forecasts also warn that improvements could be reversed in middle- and high-income countries, which would require "more vigorous efforts" everywhere, especially in prevention. The cause behind this increase? Population growth and aging, coupled with increasingly carcinogenic lifestyle habits.

42% of preventable deaths

The forecast for 2050 indicates that the number of new cancer cases worldwide will increase by 61% (to 30.5 million) and that the annual number of deaths will increase by almost 75% (reaching 18.6 million). The impact will be "disproportionate" in low- and middle-income countries, which will account for half of the diagnoses and two-thirds of the deaths "if governments do not take urgent action with dedicated funding," the authors of the analysis warn. Therefore, they call for improved access to screening tools to understand the true extent of cancers in impoverished areas, as this is the first step toward receiving appropriate treatment.

Between 1990 and 2023, Lebanon had the largest percentage increase in incidence and mortality rates (162% and 80%, respectively), while the United Arab Emirates had the largest decrease in incidence (-56%), and Kazakhstan, from Kazakhstan. In the case of Spain, which has had a high level of detection for years, diagnoses have rebounded by 4% and deaths have decreased by 28%. At the other extreme is India, where diagnosis is still under-reported: while it has managed to increase detection by 26%, mortality has also increased (+21%).

The study estimates that 42% of the estimated 10.4 million cancer deaths in 2023 were attributable to 44 behavioral risk factors, especially tobacco use (21% of cases). In low-income countries, however, the main risk factor was unprotected sex (12.5%). An unhealthy diet, high alcohol consumption, air pollution, obesity, and high blood sugar are also mentioned as cancer risk factors. All of these, the researchers emphasize, can be modified, and they urge governments and society to raise awareness and make changes.