The EU breaks the trend and will increase its emissions again in 2025.

BarcelonaThe European Union and the United States have burned more fossil fuels in 2025 than the previous year and have increased their CO₂ emissions, contrary to the downward trend of the last two decades. This is revealed in the annual Global Carbon Budget 2025 report, an analysis of CO₂ emissions prepared by the Global Carbon Project, which is being presented on the occasion of the Brazil climate summit, COP30, and which, for the first time, projects emissions for 2025. According to the study, the world as a whole will emit 1.1% more CO₂ in 2025 than in 2024, continuing the upward trend in global emissions, which are expected to reach at its peak before 2030 if we want to keep global warming below 1.5°C as called for by the Paris Agreement.

In fact, the study warns that at the current rate of emissions, in just four years we will have already emitted the maximum we should emit (the carbon budget) to avoid this 1.5°C.

But one of the most disappointing conclusions of this year's study is the growth in emissions from fossil fuels in the European Union and the United States. The latter is not surprising, given the policies declared by President Donald Trump since he took office on January 20th. with his infamous drill, baby, drill (pierce, girl, pierce)The United States (the second largest emitter, accounting for 13% of global emissions) will increase emissions from all fossil fuels this year, including coal. "The United States has significantly increased its natural gas exports, which has made gas more expensive and created an opportunity for electricity from coal-fired plants to become more competitive. This could last for a while and will slow the downward trend in emissions that the country had been experiencing," says Pep Canadell, director of the Global Carbon Project. "I don't think it will completely reverse the downward trend, but it will slow it down, due to the current administration's changes to the green policies that Joe Biden had championed."

But the European Union, which with the Paris Agreement signed just ten years ago established itself as a leader in the fight against climate change, is also burning more fossil fuels again, demonstrating a setback in the green policies that Ursula von der Leyen's Commission has introducedThe bloc of 27 European countries (which together are the fifth largest emitter in the world, accounting for 6% of the global total) have increased their emissions by 0.4%, primarily due to increased energy consumption from natural gas, as coal consumption has decreased and renewables have grown. In both the United States and the EU, this 2025 increase is not the first. Over the last two decades, the general trend has been towards reducing emissions, albeit with some fluctuations (most notably the pandemic and subsequent recovery). However, the average annual growth rate over the last ten years has been -2% for the EU. Nevertheless, Canadell is convinced that this is not a radical change and that the downward trend will continue in the future. China, which remains the world's largest emitter with 32% of global emissions, continues to increase its emissions as it has done previously, but this growth rate is also slowing. "It will reach its peak emissions very soon," warns Canadell, reiterating one of the report's positive findings. In 2025, China will emit 0.4% more than in 2024, while the United States' growth will be 1.9% compared to 2024. In fact, the Asian giant has already experienced two consecutive years of emissions growth below its average for the last decade (6% of the previous decade). This is due, according to the report, to moderate growth in energy consumption in China in 2025, but above all to the increase in renewable energy consumption, which has led to a stagnation in coal use in the country. India, the world's third-largest emitter with 8% of the total, has also increased its emissions by 1.8%, below the average of 3.6% for the last decade. "India is making a huge leap into renewables, and if this solidifies, it will be very important," Canadell points out.

Emissions from deforestation are decreasing

One piece of good news from the report is that emissions from land-use change have indeed decreased, because in 2025 there was less deforestation worldwide, especially in Latin America. The policies of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whose country is currently hosting COP30, have succeeded in reducing the levels of deforestation that his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, had triggered in the Amazon. The report also highlights that the world's forests are finally recovering from the devastating impact of El Niño, the weather phenomenon that causes droughts and high temperatures and had reduced the Earth's carbon sinks' capacity to absorb CO₂. According to this analysis, terrestrial carbon sinks (forests and plants) have captured 21% of human-generated emissions, while the oceans have absorbed 29%. The analysis by the Global Carbon Project, an initiative led by Catalan researcher Pep Canadell, based in Australia, quantifies total CO₂ emissions for 2025 at 42.2 billion tons, including those resulting from deforestation. However, the vast majority come from the direct burning of fossil fuels: 38.1 billion tons of CO₂ in 2025. With emissions accumulated year after year, the study predicts that by 2025, atmospheric CO₂ levels will reach 425.7 parts per thousand.