Permafrost disaster could thwart 2050 zero emissions target
A study warns that the CO₂ and methane released from this frozen layer will continue to raise the planet's temperature
BarcelonaIn the cold regions of Alaska, Canada and Siberia, permafrost has always been abundant, a layer of the Earth's sun that has been frozen for hundreds or thousands of years. This soil, once hard as concrete and on which entire villages have lived without interruption, is not only suffering the consequences of the climate crisis, but it may become an unstoppable source of greenhouse gas emissions.
Made of earth, gravel and sand, permafrost needs ice to maintain itself, but it is melting at a frenetic pace and its melting releases large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane - which has an even more powerful warming effect, about 25.
Researchers from Seoul National University (South Korea) and the Norwegian University of Science and Technology conclude that permafrost is melting and that emissions will increase. in crescendo, so it is expected to remain a source of air pollutants until at least 2300. All this will not change even if all countries in the world meet the ambitious goal of reducing CO₂ emissions by 2050. In other words, achieving climate neutrality.
"Permafrost can pose a considerable risk to efforts to mitigate climate change," warns So-Won Park, lead researcher and co-author of the study, which was published this Wednesday in the journal Science Advances. Although permafrost acts as a carbon sink, this analysis based on computer simulation models for the period between 2000 and 2300 suggests that this greenhouse gas emission scenario would be maintained even in a negative emissions scenario, i.e. one that is more frequent.
"Irreversible" change
The UN-organized Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already warned that among the "irreversible" changes caused by the climate crisis is the melting of permafrost. In this process, CO₂ and methane – which is the gas released by organic matter when it enters the decomposition phase and which is much more potent, but lasts less time in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide – are released in large quantities and this causes a very negative feedback process: it would increase the Earth's temperature again.
The consequences of these emissions could trigger extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts and more intense storms. In addition, the melting has already forced the relocation of entire villages – especially indigenous communities – because the foundations of the buildings become unstable and even sink as the soil on which they are built melts.
